Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Solitaire Roguelite?

Roguelite + Solitaire

Of 58 developers who shipped a Solitaire Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×253 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 88 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 88 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $1.1k → $2.3k → $180 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 5% $120k (exactly $120,180)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 86
Announced 88
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Solitaire; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Game
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,530 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $900, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stacklands older $7.99 29,244 96% 877k $7.0M (exactly $7,009,787) Sokpop Collective
Cardboard Town older $19.99 2,051 79% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,985) Stratera Games, cukuto
Rana Card $12.99 1,183 89% 35k $461k (exactly $461,015) VisionRana
Zoominoes $14.99 549 91% 16k $247k (exactly $246,885) Starlight Games inc.
Dice Player One older $14.99 456 90% 14k $205k (exactly $205,063) KDream
Solitairica older $9.99 436 78% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) Righteous Hammer Games
Wordatro! $9.99 401 85% 12k $120k (exactly $120,180) Le Poulet
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
Minesweeper: Collector older $7.99 132 88% 4.0k $32k (exactly $31,640) Anton Kryukov
Arcana Academy $14.99 67 71% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) 2A Studio
纵横麻将 Matrix Mahjong $9.99 66 90% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Chao8games
Decks of the Damned $9.99 54 68% 1.6k $16k (exactly $16,184) Thorian Games
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
WAGON $10.99 38 94% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) de_husk
Oracle 5000 $10.99 30 63% 900 $9.9k (exactly $9,891) Tripple Y, 疯狂地蛋工作室
Cribbish $4.99 65 81% 2.0k $9.7k (exactly $9,730) Fence Post Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.