Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Shoot 'Em Up

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shoot 'Em Up Roguelite?

Roguelite + Shoot 'Em Up

Of 299 developers who shipped a Shoot 'Em Up Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 359 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $140k, ×305 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 359 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 359 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Shoot 'Em Up
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 299
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $2.2k → $1.6k → $3.0k → $2.0k → $719 → $1.2k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Shoot 'Em Up: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 299
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,256)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 5% $145k (exactly $144,829)
Developers, 2 yr 299
Released games 756
Announced 359
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Shoot 'Em Up
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Shoot 'Em Up; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Bullet Hell, Action Roguelike
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 38,820 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $140k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 138 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 359 games are announced against 167 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Nova Drift 2024 · $7.0M 20 Minutes Till Dawn 2023 · $4.2M OTXO 2023 · $1.5M Star of Providence 2017 · $1.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Nova Drift older $17.99 12,975 95% 389k $7.0M (exactly $7,002,607) Chimeric
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
OTXO older $14.99 3,303 93% 99k $1.5M (exactly $1,485,359) Lateralis Heavy Industries
Star of Providence older $14.99 3,178 96% 95k $1.4M (exactly $1,429,147) Team D-13
Apocalypse Party older $9.99 4,658 72% 140k $1.4M (exactly $1,396,003) Breaker Games
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Juicy Realm older $9.99 3,269 87% 98k $980k (exactly $979,719) SpaceCan
Patch Quest older $14.99 2,058 94% 62k $925k (exactly $925,483) Lychee Game Labs
Bloodshed $12.99 1,824 84% 55k $711k (exactly $710,813) com8com1 Software
I Am Legion: Stand Survivors $8.99 2,432 82% 73k $656k (exactly $655,910) JA Game Studio
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
HUNTDOWN: OVERTIME · EA $16.99 830 88% 25k $423k (exactly $423,051) Easy Trigger Games
ODDCORE · EA $12.99 1,080 96% 32k $421k (exactly $420,876) ODDCORP
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.