Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Roguelite?

Roguelite + Romance

Of 34 developers who shipped a Romance Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.4k, ×20 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×795 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 63 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 63 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $83k → $40k → $62k → $29k → $1.9k → $24k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Median $9.4k (exactly $9,440)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $61,676)
Top 5% $378k (exactly $377,790)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 76
Announced 63
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Dating Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Cute, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 5,190 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.2k, median $9.4k, 1 in 4 over $61k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Boyfriend Dungeon older $19.99 2,105 91% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,262,368) Kitfox Games
Heads Will Roll: Reforged older $24.99 1,642 82% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,007) 1917 Studios
DRAPLINE · EA $9.99 1,826 96% 55k $547k (exactly $547,252) KANAWO
ISEKAI QUEST older $3.99 3,679 85% 110k $440k (exactly $440,376) Studio Ginkgo
Rebirth Pub $17.99 700 92% 21k $378k (exactly $377,790) Seikou Soft.
Heart&Slash older $14.99 519 81% 16k $233k (exactly $233,394) AHEARTFULOFGAMES
Fox Sex Farm $17.99 413 82% 12k $223k (exactly $222,896) R's
Ambition: A Minuet in Power older $20.99 334 85% 10k $210k (exactly $210,320) Joy Manufacturing Co.
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Colony City 27λ older $10.99 398 87% 12k $131k (exactly $131,221) Bunny Eats Tiger
Hypnosis Card 2 Happy Life $12.99 270 91% 8.1k $105k (exactly $105,219) Naku Kinoko
Mushroom Musume $14.99 221 95% 6.6k $99k (exactly $99,384) Mortally Moonstruck Games
Magic Pussy: Chapter 3 $14.99 208 77% 6.2k $94k (exactly $93,538) Dirty Adventures 🖤
Find the Demon 恶魔鉴定守则 $7.99 346 89% 10k $83k (exactly $82,936) SHAKINO_UNION
Dream Lust $4.99 412 84% 12k $62k (exactly $61,676) Cat Paw Game
Call of Boba · EA $12.99 125 67% 3.8k $49k (exactly $48,712) Tomatoast, Tomatoast

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.