Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Western

Of 27 developers who shipped a Western Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $480, ×0.8 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $29k, ×46 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $718 → $298 → $3.1k → $1.2k → $0 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $479 (exactly $479)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 5% $29k (exactly $29,071)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 69
Announced 27
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Tabletop
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Family Friendly
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 474 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $480, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $29k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
West of Loathing older $10.99 9,716 97% 291k $3.2M (exactly $3,203,365) Asymmetric
Westworld Awakening older $29.99 416 78% 12k $374k (exactly $374,275) Survios
Nancy Drew®: The Secret of Shadow Ranch older $9.99 217 88% 6.5k $65k (exactly $65,035) HeR Interactive
El Hijo - A Wild West Tale older $19.99 103 71% 3.1k $62k (exactly $61,769) Honig Studios, Quantumfrog
Diorama Builder older $4.99 391 94% 12k $59k (exactly $58,533) Virtual Arts Studio
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Vendetta Forever $19.99 34 76% 1.0k $20k (exactly $20,390) Meatspace Interactive
Cold Iron - Quick Draw Western Duels older $13.99 39 76% 1.2k $16k (exactly $16,368) Catch & Release, LLC
DOOMED Detective Game $6.99 65 46% 2.0k $14k (exactly $13,630) Azikton Studio
Chess, Texas $4.99 27 81% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Studio Apollo
Golden Rails: The heart of the state $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) Alawar Casual
Hogtie $4.99 17 94% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) Alacrity Games
Polar Star $2.99 17 94% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Violett
Spellsy $5.99 8 100% 240 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) You're a Lemon Games
Mole or Not · EA $2.99 15 53% 450 $1.3k (exactly $1,346) EY GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.