Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Werewolves

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Werewolf Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Werewolves

Only 9 developers shipped a Werewolf Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Wolf Mate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 12 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180, ×0.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90. Revenue is down 65% on the market, with 12 games announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 12 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Werewolves
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Puzzle + Werewolves: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $179 (exactly $179)
Top 25% $1.3k (exactly $1,254)
Top 5% $129k (exactly $128,546)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 33
Announced 12
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Werewolves
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,453 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $180, 1 in 4 over $1.2k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 12 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wolf Mate $6.99 613 93% 18k $129k (exactly $128,546) eTIRUe
The Beast Within: A Gabriel Knight® Mystery older $5.99 252 92% 7.6k $45k (exactly $45,284) Sierra On-Line
Fear the Moon older $6.99 132 94% 4.0k $28k (exactly $27,680) Jonny's Games
Howl older $9.99 77 96% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Mi'pu'mi Games GmbH
MacGuffin's Curse older $9.99 52 92% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Brawsome
Guise Of The Wolf older $2.99 119 36% 3.6k $11k (exactly $10,674) FUN Creators
SEARCH ALL - FOXES older $2.99 107 92% 3.2k $9.6k (exactly $9,598) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Finding the Soul Orb older $3.99 60 76% 1.8k $7.2k (exactly $7,182) Tonguç Bodur
Connected Hearts: The Full Moon Curse Collector's Edition older $7.99 26 69% 780 $6.2k (exactly $6,232) Do Games Limited
Ghosts from the House of Flesh older $9.99 15 93% 450 $4.5k (exactly $4,496) Swamp Scarecrow Games
Hollow INN $6.49 7 85% 210 $1.4k (exactly $1,363) Nussygame
Who's beast $1.99 21 100% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Progrediens Studio
Lost Dreams $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Cat Dreams Ar
Monster Hookups $2.99 2 50% 60 $179 (exactly $179) W Allured
Silent Howl $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) Yorbi
Part Of My Heart $2.99 1 0% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Dee Odd Games
Liar's Game $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) 林某人游戏工作室
Incredible Dracula: Bloodwood Secrets $6.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Game Mixer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.