Should I ship a War Puzzle game?
Puzzle + War
Of 37 developers who shipped a War Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $2.3M, ×3778 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 38 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,346) |
| Top 25% | $18k (exactly $18,114) |
| Top 5% | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 120 |
| Announced | 38 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, RPG
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 68% positive over 13,390 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ 2014 · $11M 
The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall 2026 · $3.0M 
Gunsmith Simulator 2024 · $2.4M 
Root 2020 · $2.3M 
Unity of Command II 2019 · $1.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ | older | $14.99 | 24,468 95% | 734k | $11M (exactly $11,003,260) | Ubisoft Montpellier |
| | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
| | Gunsmith Simulator | $24.99 | 3,165 84% | 95k | $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) | GameHunters | |
| | Root | older | $14.99 | 5,049 90% | 151k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) | Dire Wolf |
| | Unity of Command II | older | $29.99 | 2,042 79% | 61k | $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) | 2x2 Games, Croteam |
 | Ad Infinitum | older | $39.99 | 1,033 76% | 31k | $1.2M (exactly $1,239,290) | Hekate |
 | 63 Days | $29.99 | 413 72% | 12k | $372k (exactly $371,576) | Destructive Creations | |
 | The Conquest of Go | $14.99 | 581 94% | 17k | $261k (exactly $261,276) | Wolfey Studios | |
 | Unity of Command: Stalingrad Campaign | older | $9.99 | 808 78% | 24k | $242k (exactly $242,158) | 2x2 Games |
 | Valiant Hearts: Coming Home | older | $14.99 | 529 62% | 16k | $238k (exactly $237,891) | Ubisoft Da Nang, Ubisoft Montpellier |
 | Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate | $49.99 | 149 62% | 4.5k | $223k (exactly $223,455) | Mighty Eyes | |
 | How 2 Escape: Lost Submarine | $12.99 | 161 83% | 4.8k | $63k (exactly $62,742) | Breakfirst Games | |
 | Letters of Bernard Thorne | $9.99 | 179 97% | 5.4k | $54k (exactly $53,646) | Korean Linguistics Lab | |
 | 蜀汉再临：源起 Restart ShuHan Dynasty:Origin | $3.99 | 357 76% | 11k | $43k (exactly $42,733) | 浙江海蕊盈信网络科技有限公司 | |
 | KAMiBAKO - Mythology of Cube - | $29.99 | 37 64% | 1.1k | $33k (exactly $33,289) | GRAVITY GAME ARISE | |
 | Blitzkrieg Express | $4.99 | 121 74% | 3.6k | $18k (exactly $18,114) | Maksym Melnyk |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.