Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Villain Protagonist
Should I ship a Villain-Led Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Villain Protagonist
Only 10 developers shipped a Villain-Led Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, OFF, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $27k, ×57 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2928 the market median. Revenue is down 20% on the market; 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) |
|---|---|
| Median | $27k (exactly $27,279) |
| Top 25% | $42k (exactly $41,958) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 47 |
| Announced | 16 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 20% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
- Villain Protagonist
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Puzzle
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 3,921 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $8.4k. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
CARRION 2020 · $20M 
Untitled Goose Game 2020 · $14M 
Pumpkin Jack 2020 · $6.7M 
Lucius 2012 · $2.3M 
OFF 2025 · $1.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | CARRION | older | $19.99 | 33,270 94% | 998k | $20M (exactly $19,952,019) | Phobia Game Studio |
| | Untitled Goose Game | older | $19.99 | 22,797 95% | 684k | $14M (exactly $13,671,361) | House House |
| | Pumpkin Jack | older | $29.99 | 7,416 91% | 222k | $6.7M (exactly $6,672,175) | Evil Raptor |
| | Lucius | older | $9.99 | 7,774 80% | 233k | $2.3M (exactly $2,329,868) | Shiver Games |
| | OFF | $14.99 | 3,093 95% | 93k | $1.4M (exactly $1,390,922) | Mortis Ghost, Fangamer | |
 | Zombie Night Terror | older | $12.99 | 3,352 93% | 101k | $1.3M (exactly $1,306,274) | NoClip |
 | The Lord of the Rings: Gollum™ | older | $49.99 | 839 41% | 25k | $1.3M (exactly $1,258,248) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Overlord II | older | $9.99 | 4,002 89% | 120k | $1.2M (exactly $1,199,399) | Triumph Studios |
 | Lucius II | older | $19.99 | 1,910 61% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,145,427) | Shiver Games |
 | Dude, Stop | older | $14.99 | 2,507 88% | 75k | $1.1M (exactly $1,127,398) | Team HalfBeard |
 | Relooted | $14.99 | 257 87% | 7.7k | $116k (exactly $115,573) | Nyamakop | |
 | Castle Doombad Classic | $9.99 | 140 95% | 4.2k | $42k (exactly $41,958) | Grumpyface Studios | |
 | The Supper: New Blood | $9.99 | 120 88% | 3.6k | $36k (exactly $35,964) | White Blanket Games | |
 | Ghost Keeper | $12.99 | 70 75% | 2.1k | $27k (exactly $27,279) | Quest Craft | |
 | SECTOR ZERO | $3.99 | 138 93% | 4.1k | $17k (exactly $16,519) | Ondrej Angelovic | |
 | Toastercide | $9.99 | 28 100% | 840 | $8.4k (exactly $8,392) | The Chairman | |
 | I Eat Paintings When Guards Aren't Looking | $5.99 | 39 97% | 1.2k | $7.0k (exactly $7,008) | Frog & Dove Games | |
 | Shoe it All! | $7.99 | 21 100% | 630 | $5.0k (exactly $5,034) | Amberbite | |
 | Ooze: The Great and Powerful | $5.99 | 15 100% | 450 | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) | Play Hooky |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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