Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Underground

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Underground Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Underground

Of 73 developers who shipped an Underground Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 139 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $800, ×1.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $72k, ×153 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 139 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 139 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Underground
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 73
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.7k → $1.4k → $1.5k → $1.3k → $599 → $1.7k → $599 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Underground: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 73
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $802 (exactly $802)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $73k (exactly $72,658)
Developers, 2 yr 73
Released games 212
Announced 139
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Underground
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,537 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $800, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $72k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 139 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
The Exit 8 older $3.99 10,946 93% 328k $1.3M (exactly $1,310,236) KOTAKE CREATE
The Ball older $9.99 830 74% 25k $249k (exactly $248,751) Teotl Studios
Eye of the Temple older $19.99 392 92% 12k $235k (exactly $235,082) Rune Skovbo Johansen
Reach $29.99 244 66% 7.3k $220k (exactly $219,527) nDreams Elevation
Cellar Keeper $4.99 892 89% 27k $134k (exactly $133,532) EgoTrampoline
Caput Mortum $11.99 355 94% 11k $128k (exactly $127,694) WildArts Games
Tunnet older $5.99 699 94% 21k $126k (exactly $125,610) puzzled_squid
DigDigDrill $3.99 607 95% 18k $73k (exactly $72,658) Toorai
Lord Ambermaze $14.99 131 91% 3.9k $59k (exactly $58,911) Potata Company
Underchoice $7.99 113 72% 3.4k $27k (exactly $27,086) TG Indie
Take Notes $6.99 93 96% 2.8k $20k (exactly $19,502) Stoneware Game Studio
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell
BACKROOMS ANOMALY $6.99 60 71% 1.8k $13k (exactly $12,582) liminal_games
Elsewhere Electric $24.99 11 27% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Games by Stitch

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.