Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Spelling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spelling Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Spelling

Of 81 developers who shipped a Spelling Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $330 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 54 developers shipped in the last year and 65 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 65 announced, ×1.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Spelling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 81
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $958 → $748 → $450 → $405 → $299 → $748 → $535 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Spelling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 81
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 5% $41k (exactly $41,006)
Developers, 2 yr 81
Released games 217
Announced 65
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Spelling
effort 1 / 10 · high · effort 1 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle, Spelling; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Word Game, RPG
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 3,003 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.8k, 1 in 20 over $41k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. Nearly all of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Draw & Guess older $4.99 31,627 83% 949k $4.7M (exactly $4,734,562) Acureus
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Wordle 3 older $30.62 610 78% 18k $560k (exactly $560,346) PreoNus Games
Wordle 2 older $30.62 394 61% 12k $362k (exactly $361,928) PreoNus Games
Paper Bride 5 Two Lifetimes older $9.99 606 84% 18k $182k (exactly $181,618) HeartBeat Plus
Paper Bride 6 Nightmare $9.99 369 81% 11k $111k (exactly $110,589) HeartBeat Plus
你已经猜到结局了吗 older $7.99 388 92% 12k $93k (exactly $93,004) 橘音
You Can Kana - Learn Japanese Hiragana & Katakana older $9.99 281 98% 8.4k $84k (exactly $84,216) James Moulang
Letter Quest: Grimm's Journey Remastered older $7.99 340 93% 10k $81k (exactly $81,498) Bacon Bandit Games
Party Quiz $11.99 147 80% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,876) White Ink
Beyond Words $14.99 102 84% 3.1k $46k (exactly $45,869) MindFuel Games
Word Game World $11.99 114 62% 3.4k $41k (exactly $41,006) Team9
这是谐音梗 $2.40 567 94% 17k $41k (exactly $40,824) Find the Lamp Games
Keine's Expanding Class! $5.99 143 99% 4.3k $26k (exactly $25,697) HornyMelon
The Angel's Devil Tail - One More Question 2 $9.99 70 91% 2.1k $21k (exactly $20,979) 橘音
Spiritual Bond ~Breaking the curse, Intertwining fates~ $5.99 98 82% 2.9k $18k (exactly $17,611) MONRA
Word Puzzle Master $2.49 144 82% 4.3k $11k (exactly $10,757) Tilewise

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.