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Should I ship a Science Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Science
Of 120 developers who shipped a Science Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $750, ×1.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $200k, ×435 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 179 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $748 (exactly $748) |
| Top 25% | $6.6k (exactly $6,597) |
| Top 5% | $206k (exactly $206,468) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 120 |
| Released games | 436 |
| Announced | 179 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Logic, Exploration
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,207 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 56 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 72 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
Portal 2 2011 · $117M 
Portal 2007 · $52M 
The Talos Principle 2014 · $26M 
The Talos Principle 2 2023 · $11M 
while True: learn() 2019 · $2.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Portal 2 | older | $9.99 | 390,412 98% | 12M | $117M (exactly $117,006,476) | Valve |
| | Portal | older | $9.99 | 173,594 98% | 5.2M | $52M (exactly $52,026,122) | Valve |
| | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
| | The Talos Principle 2 | older | $29.99 | 12,478 94% | 374k | $11M (exactly $11,226,457) | Croteam |
| | while True: learn() | older | $12.99 | 7,350 91% | 221k | $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) | Luden.io |
 | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
 | Moons of Madness | older | $24.99 | 2,189 77% | 66k | $1.6M (exactly $1,641,093) | Rock Pocket Games |
 | Slipways | older | $16.99 | 2,233 93% | 67k | $1.1M (exactly $1,138,160) | Beetlewing |
 | CATO: Buttered Cat | older | $10.99 | 2,794 98% | 84k | $921k (exactly $921,182) | Team Woll |
 | SpaceChem | older | $9.99 | 2,626 95% | 79k | $787k (exactly $787,012) | Zachtronics |
 | The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition | $24.99 | 836 72% | 25k | $627k (exactly $626,749) | Blue Brain Games | |
 | The Message from Deep Space | $9.99 | 1,453 96% | 44k | $435k (exactly $435,464) | Applesinmypants | |
 | Schrodinger's Cat Burglar | $19.99 | 613 97% | 18k | $368k (exactly $367,616) | Abandoned Sheep | |
 | Lab Rat | $19.99 | 365 97% | 11k | $219k (exactly $218,890) | Chump Squad | |
 | Machinika: Atlas | $11.99 | 574 76% | 17k | $206k (exactly $206,468) | Littlefield Studio | |
 | JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator | $17.99 | 378 76% | 11k | $204k (exactly $204,007) | Prof. Scherer | |
 | Terra Firma 2 | · EA | $19.99 | 200 92% | 6.0k | $120k (exactly $119,940) | Working as Intended |
 | Looking For Fael | $19.99 | 165 98% | 5.0k | $99k (exactly $98,950) | Swing Swing Submarine, La Poule Noire,… (Swing Swing Submarine, La Poule Noire, ARTE France) | |
 | The House of Da Vinci VR | $24.99 | 126 93% | 3.8k | $94k (exactly $94,462) | Blue Brain Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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