Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Roguelite?

Roguelite + Puzzle

Of 285 developers who shipped a Puzzle Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 422 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×2.2 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $190k, ×401 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 422 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 422 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 285
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $2.2k → $2.6k → $3.5k → $2.1k → $1.0k → $599 (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 285
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,838)
Top 5% $190k (exactly $190,310)
Developers, 2 yr 285
Released games 572
Announced 422
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Deckbuilding
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 49,481 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.8k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 110 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 422 games are announced against 182 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Inscryption 2021 · $81M Blue Prince 2025 · $16M Buckshot Roulette 2024 · $9.9M Into the Breach 2018 · $8.5M Labyrinthine 2023 · $4.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Blue Prince $29.99 17,498 85% 525k $16M (exactly $15,742,951) Dogubomb
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
Into the Breach older $14.99 19,000 94% 570k $8.5M (exactly $8,544,300) Subset Games
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
The Legend of Bum-Bo older $14.99 5,654 80% 170k $2.5M (exactly $2,542,604) Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Rid… (Edmund McMillen, James Interactive, Ridiculon)
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Duskers older $19.99 2,304 90% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,709) Misfits Attic
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
ShapeHero Factory $23.99 991 88% 30k $713k (exactly $713,223) Asobism.Co.,Ltd
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Welcome to the Game III $19.99 648 78% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Reflect Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.