Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Psychological Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological-Horror Roguelite?

Roguelite + Psychological Horror

Of 108 developers who shipped a Psychological-Horror Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 219 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 219 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 219 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Psychological Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 108
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $18k → $4.5k → $2.6k → $13k → $2.9k → $3.1k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Psychological Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 108
Bottom 30% $718 (exactly $718)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $23,834)
Top 5% $743k (exactly $743,405)
Developers, 2 yr 108
Released games 217
Announced 219
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological Horror
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 65,616 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 219 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lobotomy Corporation | Monster Management Simulation older $24.99 52,522 94% 1.6M $39M (exactly $39,375,743) ProjectMoon
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Labyrinthine older $9.99 13,779 84% 413k $4.1M (exactly $4,129,566) Valko Game Studios
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
PANICORE older $9.99 10,748 78% 322k $3.2M (exactly $3,221,176) ZTEK Studio
The Mound: Omen of Cthulhu $29.99 3,107 69% 93k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,368) ACE Team
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
Nunholy $7.99 5,150 88% 155k $1.2M (exactly $1,234,455) Chowbie
Pronoun Palace $19.84 1,249 99% 37k $743k (exactly $743,405) Cadence Petersen, Hazel Fackler
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Welcome to the Game III $19.99 648 78% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Reflect Studios
Desktop Defender $4.99 1,757 92% 53k $263k (exactly $263,023) Conradical Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.