Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Roguelite?

Roguelite + Psychological

Of 46 developers who shipped a Psychological Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 108 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×384 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 108 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 108 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $9.6k → $2.6k → $1.9k → $4.6k → $1.8k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $420 (exactly $420)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $8.7k (exactly $8,691)
Top 5% $182k (exactly $182,218)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 75
Announced 108
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 220% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Adventure, Simulation
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 27,887 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $8.6k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. All of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 108 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
The Last Case of Benedict Fox Definitive Edition older $24.99 786 71% 24k $589k (exactly $589,264) Plot Twist
The Backrooms: Survival older $9.99 881 82% 26k $264k (exactly $264,036) RE:CODE
It Has My Face $9.99 608 88% 18k $182k (exactly $182,218) NightByte Games
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Transliminal: Beyond The Backrooms · EA older $12.49 153 90% 4.6k $57k (exactly $57,329) Corey Jeffries
Dice Tavern: Farkle Roguelike $9.99 112 90% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,566) Cavi Studio
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Blackjack Descent $7.99 88 79% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) CGI LAB GAMES
This is Interesting $6.99 76 98% 2.3k $16k (exactly $15,937) Scott Jund
ARSONATE $2.99 158 87% 4.7k $14k (exactly $14,173) Nash
Time for Bed $4.99 83 96% 2.5k $12k (exactly $12,425) NERDY PENGUIN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.