Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Psychological

Of 502 developers who shipped a Psychological Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 739 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $66k, ×140 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 739 games are announced against 292 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 739 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 502
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.0k → $3.2k → $2.4k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $1.3k → $748 (still earning) → $716 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 502
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,940)
Top 5% $67k (exactly $66,685)
Developers, 2 yr 502
Released games 1,208
Announced 739
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 10,829 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $960, 1 in 4 over $4.9k, 1 in 20 over $66k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 261 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 739 games are announced against 292 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
BONELAB older $39.99 18,670 82% 560k $22M (exactly $22,398,399) Stress Level Zero
The Stanley Parable older $14.99 40,292 92% 1.2M $18M (exactly $18,119,312) Galactic Cafe
Superliminal older $19.99 28,428 94% 853k $17M (exactly $17,048,272) Pillow Castle
The Coffin of Andy and Leyley · EA older $11.99 36,603 96% 1.1M $13M (exactly $13,166,099) Kit9 Studio
The Medium older $49.99 7,485 88% 225k $11M (exactly $11,225,254) Bloober Team
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
Fran Bow older $14.99 20,579 97% 617k $9.3M (exactly $9,254,376) Killmonday Games AB
Viewfinder older $24.99 11,901 94% 357k $8.9M (exactly $8,922,180) Sad Owl Studios
Antichamber older $19.99 13,656 95% 410k $8.2M (exactly $8,189,503) Alexander Bruce
Luto $19.99 1,225 85% 37k $735k (exactly $734,632) Broken Bird Games
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka
Last Report $4.99 2,423 89% 73k $363k (exactly $362,723) Monopixel Games
Deep Sleep: Labyrinth of the Forsaken $19.99 595 94% 18k $357k (exactly $356,822) scriptwelder
Demons' Timeline $10.99 1,046 97% 31k $345k (exactly $344,866) DigitalCats
Slender Threads $19.99 574 90% 17k $344k (exactly $344,228) Blyts
Dead Take $14.99 752 87% 23k $338k (exactly $338,174) Surgent Studios
Mindlock - The Apartment $14.99 629 95% 19k $283k (exactly $282,861) Roof Cut Media
ENTITY: THE BLACK DAY $17.99 494 79% 15k $267k (exactly $266,612) ASD Games Studio
HER TREES : PUZZLE DREAM $3.99 1,936 97% 58k $232k (exactly $231,739) Stone

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.