Do I ship it?

Games › Roguelite › Roguelite + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Roguelite?

Roguelite + Post-apocalyptic

Of 193 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 425 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×3.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1021 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 425 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 425 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 193
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.5k → $4.5k → $2.7k → $5.5k → $1.9k → $2.2k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 193
Bottom 30% $594 (exactly $594)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $26,454)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,482)
Developers, 2 yr 193
Released games 422
Announced 425
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 86,061 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $26k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 83 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 425 games are announced against 116 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Mewgenics 2026 · $45M Roboquest 2023 · $14M Deadzone: Rogue 2025 · $11M The Last Spell 2023 · $9.9M Nuclear Throne 2015 · $5.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mewgenics $29.99 49,996 89% 1.5M $45M (exactly $44,981,401) Edmund McMillen, Tyler Glaiel
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
The Last Spell older $24.99 13,260 91% 398k $9.9M (exactly $9,941,022) Ishtar Games
Nuclear Throne older $11.99 15,047 96% 451k $5.4M (exactly $5,412,406) Vlambeer
The Last Stand: Aftermath older $24.99 6,096 80% 183k $4.6M (exactly $4,570,171) Con Artist Games
GTTOD · EA older $29.99 3,010 87% 90k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,097) Andrew Smith, STUDIO Bare Bones
MIMESIS · EA $9.99 8,396 84% 252k $2.5M (exactly $2,516,281) ReLU Games, Inc.
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Dead Age older $14.99 4,407 83% 132k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,828) Silent Dreams
FUMES · EA $14.99 2,816 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,266,355) FUMES team
EverSiege: Untold Ages $19.99 1,906 68% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,143,028) Tindalos Interactive
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
As We Descend · EA $19.99 1,336 86% 40k $801k (exactly $801,199) Box Dragon
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
DIVE or DIE - Children of Rain $17.99 1,255 91% 38k $677k (exactly $677,323) Drop Rate Studio
Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer $18.99 1,126 78% 34k $641k (exactly $641,482) Runner Duck

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.