Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Visual Novel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Visual Novel Political Sim?

Political Sim + Visual Novel

Of 25 developers who shipped a Visual Novel Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×3.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×291 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 59 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 59 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Visual Novel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $538 → $6.6k → $2.2k → $1.2k → $3.0k → $598 (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Visual Novel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,469)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $138,461)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 88
Announced 59
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 155% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Visual Novel
effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Political Sim, Visual Novel; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Choices Matter, Multiple Endings, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 2,269 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds24 devs · median $17k · 33 announced
  9. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Suzerain older $19.99 10,574 92% 317k $6.3M (exactly $6,341,228) Torpor Games
Orwell: Keeping an Eye On You older $9.99 8,936 90% 268k $2.7M (exactly $2,678,119) Osmotic Studios
Long Live The Queen older $9.99 5,832 94% 175k $1.7M (exactly $1,747,850) Hanako Games
We. The Revolution older $19.99 1,997 73% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,197,601) Polyslash
The Life and Suffering of Prince Jerian $24.99 1,356 74% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,016,593) Schisma Games
SEX with HITLER older $6.99 3,358 81% 101k $704k (exactly $704,173) Adolf Games
Orwell: Ignorance is Strength older $9.99 1,506 77% 45k $451k (exactly $451,348) Osmotic Studios
Sex with Stalin older $5.99 2,217 83% 67k $398k (exactly $398,395) Mova Games
For the People older $16.99 729 73% 22k $372k (exactly $371,571) Brezg Studio
Long Gone Days older $24.99 468 88% 14k $351k (exactly $350,860) This I Dreamt
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Your Crown Is Mine $18.99 34 82% 1.0k $19k (exactly $19,370) Lyyycaena
Marry a Deep One: Innsmouth Simulator $17.99 32 50% 960 $17k (exactly $17,270) simulinati
Ministry of Truth: False Memory $6.99 69 85% 2.1k $14k (exactly $14,469) IKKOSAMA, False Memory Dept.
Miss Peacock $9.99 33 96% 990 $9.9k (exactly $9,890) Otter Club
The Three Kingdoms of Shadows: Xuzhou $6.99 23 82% 690 $4.8k (exactly $4,823) 鹏砚
Pitchforks and Daggers $4.99 20 85% 600 $3.0k (exactly $2,994) Idan Sheinkman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.