Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Political Sim?

Political Sim + Sci-fi

Of 24 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Political Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 33 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×36 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $750; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×1203 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 36.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 105% on the market, 33 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $52k → $0 → $21k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $750 (exactly $750)
Median $17k (exactly $17,094)
Top 25% $136k (exactly $136,064)
Top 5% $572k (exactly $571,514)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 51
Announced 33
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Political Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, 4X
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 65% positive over 15,736 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $750, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $130k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $750. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 33 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  10. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  11. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced
  12. + SpacePoor odds14 devs · median $9.6k · 25 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Thank You For Your Application $19.99 953 81% 29k $572k (exactly $571,514) IceLemonTea Studio
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Security 51 $9.99 454 71% 14k $136k (exactly $136,064) Alawar
Galaxy Princess Zorana $24.99 154 88% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Hanako Games
Supreme Ruler 2020 Gold older $9.99 206 80% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) BattleGoat Studios
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Lunar Ascendant $14.99 86 44% 2.6k $39k (exactly $38,674) Darts Games
Epoch Cycle $8.99 79 68% 2.4k $21k (exactly $21,306) GeometricUniverse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.