Do I ship it?

GamesPolitical SimPolitical Sim + Space

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Space Political Sim?

Political Sim + Space

Only 14 developers shipped a Space Political Sim in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Halo: Campaign Evolved, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.6k, ×15 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $60; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×29879 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 15.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Political Sim + Space
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 14
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $138k → $60 → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Political Sim + Space: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 14
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 25% $157k (exactly $157,395)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $18,764,246)
Developers, 2 yr 14
Released games 33
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Political Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Space
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Political Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, 4X, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2.5D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 64% positive over 14,396 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $9.6k, 1 in 4 over $150k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 3 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Political Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DetectiveFair10 devs · median $9.9k · 15 announced
  2. + Psychological HorrorFair10 devs · median $4.8k · 16 announced
  3. + IdlerFair20 devs · median $1.2k · 14 announced
  4. + IncrementalFair17 devs · median $832 · 16 announced
  5. + Board GameFair18 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  6. + TabletopFair12 devs · median $600 · 12 announced
  7. + CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  8. + Sci-fiPoor odds24 devs · median $17k · 33 announced
  9. + FuturisticPoor odds16 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 50 announced
  11. + Cold WarPoor odds15 devs · median $9.9k · 23 announced
  12. + BuildingPoor odds37 devs · median $9.6k · 83 announced

All 72 pairs on the Political Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
Base One older $24.99 458 36% 14k $343k (exactly $343,363) PixFroze
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Project Planet - Earth vs Humanity older $24.99 361 78% 11k $271k (exactly $270,642) Fifth Harbour Studios
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
Astrobuilder $14.99 350 88% 11k $157k (exactly $157,395) wastudio
Lightracer: For Judge $9.99 462 92% 14k $138k (exactly $138,461) Smartmelon Games
Supreme Ruler 2020 Gold older $9.99 206 80% 6.2k $62k (exactly $61,738) BattleGoat Studios
Emperor of the Fading Suns Enhanced $9.99 174 95% 5.2k $52k (exactly $52,148) Holistic Design, Inc.
Arms Race - TCWE older $9.99 60 68% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,982) Alina Digital
The Diner at the End of the Galaxy · EA $9.99 32 59% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) General Interactive Co.
Planetary Governor · EA $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Lensy
Influence $3.99 1 100% 30 $120 (exactly $120) RISE'S
Amazing Space $1.99 1 0% 30 $60 (exactly $60) Playbosh Games Entertainment UG (haftun… (Playbosh Games Entertainment UG (haftungsbeschränkt))

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.