Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Ninja

Only 19 developers shipped a Ninja Puzzle game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hidden Cats in Tokyo, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 130% on the market; 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 130% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $1.1k → $899 → $2.9k → $180 → $3.0k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $719 (exactly $719)
Top 25% $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 5% $31k (exactly $30,908)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 81
Announced 10
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 130% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Combat
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 428 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.7k, 1 in 20 over $30k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun older $39.99 30,845 96% 925k $37M (exactly $37,004,746) Mimimi Games
Mark of the Ninja: Remastered older $19.99 6,584 95% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,948,425) Klei Entertainment
Shadow Tactics: Aiko's Choice older $19.99 3,965 93% 119k $2.4M (exactly $2,377,810) Mimimi Games
RONIN older $12.99 1,613 71% 48k $629k (exactly $628,586) Tomasz Wacławek
Sumoman older $11.99 542 79% 16k $195k (exactly $194,957) Tequilabyte Studio
Ninja Stealth older $4.99 912 76% 27k $137k (exactly $136,526) SC Jogos
Ninja Stealth 2 older $4.99 667 70% 20k $100k (exactly $99,850) SC Jogos
10 Second Ninja X older $9.99 306 84% 9.2k $92k (exactly $91,708) Four Circle Interactive
Ninja Stealth 3 older $4.99 545 81% 16k $82k (exactly $81,586) SC Jogos
Hentai Sakura 🌸🌊 older $4.99 272 65% 8.2k $41k (exactly $40,718) BanzaiProject
Hidden Cats in Tokyo $5.99 172 92% 5.2k $31k (exactly $30,908) Nukearts Studio
Arashi Gaiden $9.99 64 95% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) Statera Studio, Wired Dreams Studio
Ninja Ming $9.99 59 94% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) 1 Poss Studio
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
Katana Dragon $9.99 16 81% 480 $4.8k (exactly $4,795) Tsunoa Games
Kimono Cats $8.99 11 100% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) HumaNature Studios
Ninja Ming: Wu $1.99 48 100% 1.4k $2.9k (exactly $2,866) 1 Poss Studio
虚衝 - Kyosho $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) むつむつプロジェクト(Mutsu'pro)
100 Find Kitties: Ninja $0.99 31 83% 930 $921 (exactly $921) Sons of Welder, fm simple games studio
Last Shinobi $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) Dark Tomato Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.