Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Nature

Of 375 developers who shipped a Nature Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 597 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×467 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 597 games are announced against 213 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 597 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 375
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $776 → $1.5k → $479 → $1.0k → $719 → $474 → $838 (still earning) → $120 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 375
Bottom 30% $144 (exactly $144)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,196)
Top 5% $222k (exactly $221,889)
Developers, 2 yr 375
Released games 1,294
Announced 597
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 64,180 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 237 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 597 games are announced against 213 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Big Walk 2026 · $19M FAR: Lone Sails 2018 · $11M Terra Nil 2023 · $6.0M TOEM: A Photo Adventure 2021 · $5.8M Neva 2024 · $5.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Big Walk $19.99 32,470 95% 974k $19M (exactly $19,472,259) House House
FAR: Lone Sails older $14.99 24,474 95% 734k $11M (exactly $11,005,958) Okomotive
Terra Nil older $24.99 8,035 87% 241k $6.0M (exactly $6,023,840) Free Lives, Clockwork Acorn
TOEM: A Photo Adventure older $19.99 9,688 99% 291k $5.8M (exactly $5,809,894) Something We Made
Neva $19.99 9,343 93% 280k $5.6M (exactly $5,602,997) Nomada Studio
Carto older $19.99 7,290 96% 219k $4.4M (exactly $4,371,813) Sunhead Games
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
Cat Goes Fishing older $6.99 15,431 94% 463k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,881) Cat5Games
Jusant older $24.99 4,123 93% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,091,013) DON'T NOD
Never Alone (Kisima Ingitchuna) older $14.99 5,812 81% 174k $2.6M (exactly $2,613,656) Upper One Games, E-Line Media
Creature Kitchen $7.99 9,046 99% 271k $2.2M (exactly $2,168,326) The Rat Zone
Öoo $9.99 6,575 99% 197k $2.0M (exactly $1,970,528) NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuy… (NamaTakahashi, tiny cactus studio, Tsuyomi)
DrainSim · EA $14.99 2,586 91% 78k $1.2M (exactly $1,162,924) CodePeas
Darwin's Paradox! $24.99 843 87% 25k $632k (exactly $631,997) ZDT Studio
Amerzone - The Explorer's Legacy $39.99 526 90% 16k $631k (exactly $631,042) Microids Studio Paris
Keeper $19.99 1,031 91% 31k $618k (exactly $618,291) Double Fine Productions
Camper Van: Make it Home $14.99 1,150 91% 35k $517k (exactly $517,155) Malapata Studio
TETRIS® THE GRAND MASTER 4 -ABSOLUTE EYE- $24.99 610 87% 18k $457k (exactly $457,317) ARIKA

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.