Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Mythology

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mythological Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Mythology

Of 107 developers who shipped a Mythological Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 215 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×272 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 215 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 215 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Mythology
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 107
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $4.2k → $239 → $6.3k → $2.2k → $3.0k → $600 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Mythology: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 107
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,347)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,646)
Top 5% $171k (exactly $170,932)
Developers, 2 yr 107
Released games 363
Announced 215
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Mythology
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 15,277 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 67 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 215 games are announced against 61 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chants of Sennaar older $19.99 30,416 98% 912k $18M (exactly $18,240,475) Rundisc
Strange Brigade older $49.99 8,309 84% 249k $12M (exactly $12,461,007) Rebellion
Immortals Fenyx Rising older $39.99 4,522 73% 136k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,043) Ubisoft
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
The Rewinder older $14.99 6,843 95% 205k $3.1M (exactly $3,077,297) MistyMountainStudio
Threefold Recital $14.99 5,117 98% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,115) Everscape Games
The Séance of Blake Manor $19.99 3,683 95% 110k $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) Spooky Doorway
Röki older $19.99 2,452 89% 74k $1.5M (exactly $1,470,464) Polygon Treehouse
Isles of Sea and Sky older $19.99 1,538 91% 46k $922k (exactly $922,339) Cicada Games
One-Eyed Likho $19.99 1,155 93% 35k $693k (exactly $692,654) Morteshka
Mindlock - The Apartment $14.99 629 95% 19k $283k (exactly $282,861) Roof Cut Media
The End of the Sun $24.99 228 97% 6.8k $171k (exactly $170,932) The End of the Sun Forge
The Rewinder 2 $15.99 353 60% 11k $169k (exactly $169,334) MistyMountainStudio
The Girl from Arkanya $19.99 153 92% 4.6k $92k (exactly $91,754) Arkanya Games
Mosaic of The Pharaohs $8.99 297 92% 8.9k $80k (exactly $80,101) Mark Ffrench
Mythwrecked: Ambrosia Island $24.99 104 93% 3.1k $78k (exactly $77,969) Polygon Treehouse

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.