Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Modern

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Modern-Day Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Modern

Of 145 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $90. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 138 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 138 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Modern
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 145
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $719 → $1.2k → $1.6k → $599 → $1.2k → $359 (still earning) → $90 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Modern: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 145
Bottom 30% $90 (exactly $90)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 5% $89k (exactly $88,591)
Developers, 2 yr 145
Released games 426
Announced 138
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Modern
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Logic
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 6,286 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $90, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.1k, 1 in 20 over $88k.

3 in 10 developers made under $90. 9 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 81 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

PC Building Simulator 2019 · $25M The Bridge Curse Road to Salvation 2022 · $1.8M Tomb Raider: Legend 2007 · $1.1M Urbek City Builder 2022 · $1.0M Scene Investigators 2023 · $720k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
PC Building Simulator older $19.99 42,153 93% 1.3M $25M (exactly $25,279,154) Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation
The Bridge Curse Road to Salvation older $19.99 2,989 89% 90k $1.8M (exactly $1,792,503) SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT
Tomb Raider: Legend older $6.99 5,430 87% 163k $1.1M (exactly $1,138,671) Crystal Dynamics
Urbek City Builder older $18.99 1,830 89% 55k $1.0M (exactly $1,042,551) Fridus
Scene Investigators older $24.99 961 74% 29k $720k (exactly $720,462) EQ Studios
The Scourge | Tai Ương $19.99 1,192 93% 36k $715k (exactly $714,842) Rare Reversee, Beaztek
Sex, Secrets & Used Tech $16.99 1,291 85% 39k $658k (exactly $658,023) WorkNite Games, 78Games
Welcome to the Game III $19.99 648 78% 19k $389k (exactly $388,606) Reflect Studios
Demons' Timeline $10.99 1,046 97% 31k $345k (exactly $344,866) DigitalCats
Platform 8 older $3.99 2,719 86% 82k $325k (exactly $325,464) KOTAKE CREATE
Under The Island $19.99 446 92% 13k $267k (exactly $267,466) Slime King Games
Alex Hill: Whispers at White Oak Inn $19.99 373 93% 11k $224k (exactly $223,688) hannahontrek
A Case of Fraud $8.99 540 97% 16k $146k (exactly $145,638) Hesperus Games
Check Inn $14.99 197 84% 5.9k $89k (exactly $88,591) KishMish Games
CIPHER ZERO $14.99 165 89% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Zapdot
Holoidle $4.99 388 84% 12k $58k (exactly $58,084) Kindred Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.