Do I ship it?

GamesStrategyStrategy + Minigames

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Minigames Strategy game?

Strategy + Minigames

Of 32 developers who shipped a Minigames Strategy game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $4.1M, ×6587 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 32 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy + Minigames
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 32
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $27k → $47k → $1.3k → $2.3k (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy + Minigames: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 32
Bottom 30% $897 (exactly $897)
Median $2.3k (exactly $2,307)
Top 25% $123k (exactly $123,145)
Top 5% $4.1M (exactly $4,136,731)
Developers, 2 yr 32
Released games 88
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Minigames
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy, Minigames; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, PvP, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cartoony, Cute, Funny
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 28,095 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.3k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $4.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds50 devs · median $65k · 27 announced
  2. + Job SimulatorFair62 devs · median $16k · 74 announced
  3. + BaseballFair14 devs · median $7.5k · 7 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Fair89 devs · median $6.7k · 91 announced
  5. + WuxiaFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 41 announced
  6. + FarmingFair44 devs · median $4.3k · 42 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 94 announced
  8. + SubmarineFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 23 announced
  9. + NavalFair66 devs · median $2.2k · 88 announced
  10. + IdlerFair696 devs · median $1.9k · 988 announced
  11. + Shop KeeperFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  12. + HackingFair96 devs · median $1.2k · 132 announced

All 275 pairs on the Strategy page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Plants vs. Zombies™: Replanted $19.99 6,898 66% 207k $4.1M (exactly $4,136,731) PopCap Games, The Lost Pixels
Swords & Souls: Neverseen older $14.99 6,077 93% 182k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,827) SoulGame Studio
Gunsmith Simulator $24.99 3,165 84% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,372,800) GameHunters
Among Us 3D $9.99 3,056 72% 92k $916k (exactly $915,883) Schell Games, Innersloth
Feign $4.99 5,270 91% 158k $789k (exactly $788,919) Teneke Kafalar
Cauldron $14.99 1,678 92% 50k $755k (exactly $754,597) SleepyDad Games
Among Us 3D: VR older $9.99 2,449 75% 73k $734k (exactly $733,965) Schell Games, Innersloth, Robot Teddy
Filament older $16.99 623 86% 19k $318k (exactly $317,543) Beard Envy
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
Ugoku Sushi Bar $12.99 316 88% 9.5k $123k (exactly $123,145) Rogue Duck Interactive
Shujinkou $59.99 26 92% 780 $47k (exactly $46,792) Rice Games Inc
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.