Do I ship it?

GamesRogueliteRoguelite + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Roguelite?

Roguelite + Medieval

Of 397 developers who shipped a Medieval Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 702 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×889 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 702 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 702 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 397
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.2k → $2.7k → $2.0k → $3.0k → $6.1k → $2.5k → $1.3k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 397
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,671)
Top 5% $422k (exactly $422,079)
Developers, 2 yr 397
Released games 780
Announced 702
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, RPG
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 37,695 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 163 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 702 games are announced against 248 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
King Arthur: Knight's Tale older $44.99 6,722 83% 202k $9.1M (exactly $9,072,683) NeocoreGames
Rogue Legacy older $14.99 15,877 92% 476k $7.1M (exactly $7,139,887) Cellar Door Games
We Who Are About To Die · EA older $21.99 8,134 88% 244k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) Jordy Lakiere
Kingdom: New Lands older $14.99 10,152 86% 305k $4.6M (exactly $4,565,354) Noio
The King is Watching $14.99 9,006 88% 270k $4.0M (exactly $4,049,998) Hypnohead
Orcs Must Die! Deathtrap $29.99 4,053 69% 122k $3.6M (exactly $3,646,484) Robot Entertainment
Heroes of Hammerwatch II $19.99 5,806 82% 174k $3.5M (exactly $3,481,858) Crackshell
Rogue Tower older $14.99 5,772 82% 173k $2.6M (exactly $2,595,668) Die of Death Games
Demeo older $39.99 1,703 87% 51k $2.0M (exactly $2,043,089) Resolution Games
VOIN · EA $19.99 3,319 94% 100k $2.0M (exactly $1,990,404) Nikita Sozidar
Tears of Metal · EA $24.99 2,359 85% 71k $1.8M (exactly $1,768,542) Paper Cult
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
Pass the Fear $18.99 2,985 79% 90k $1.7M (exactly $1,700,554) PlayMud Studio
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Lucky Tower Ultimate $14.99 2,281 94% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,025,766) Studio Seufz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.