Do I ship it?

Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Medieval

Of 229 developers who shipped a Medieval Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 322 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $94k, ×199 the market median. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 322 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 322 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 229
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $719 → $478 → $1.1k → $838 → $718 → $897 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 229
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $5.8k (exactly $5,755)
Top 5% $94k (exactly $94,462)
Developers, 2 yr 229
Released games 709
Announced 322
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 14,548 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $5.7k, 1 in 20 over $94k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 134 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 322 games are announced against 120 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M Besiege 2020 · $22M Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales 2018 · $9.4M Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy 2026 · $5.3M The House of Da Vinci 2017 · $4.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Besiege older $14.99 48,045 95% 1.4M $22M (exactly $21,605,836) Spiderling Studios
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy $49.99 3,558 92% 107k $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) Asobo Studio
The House of Da Vinci older $19.99 6,710 85% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,023,987) Blue Brain Games
Ghost of a Tale older $19.99 4,214 91% 126k $2.5M (exactly $2,527,136) SeithCG
Hammerwatch II older $24.99 1,871 60% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,402,689) Crackshell
Drop Duchy $14.99 2,962 89% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) Sleepy Mill Studio
The Dark Eye: Memoria older $19.99 2,090 89% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,253,373) Daedalic Entertainment
The Dark Eye: Chains of Satinav older $19.99 2,074 86% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,243,778) Daedalic Entertainment
The Artisan of Glimmith $12.99 2,513 97% 75k $979k (exactly $979,316) Lunarch Studios
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
Click Mage $4.99 2,529 91% 76k $379k (exactly $378,591) Tiny Crow Games
Dawnfolk $14.99 664 94% 20k $299k (exactly $298,601) Darenn Keller
Puzzle Quest: Immortal Edition $14.99 522 77% 16k $235k (exactly $234,743) Infinity Plus 2
Philna Fantasy $14.99 477 52% 14k $215k (exactly $214,507) Sailike Game
The Stone of Madness $29.99 199 77% 6.0k $179k (exactly $179,040) The Game Kitchen
The End of the Sun $24.99 228 97% 6.8k $171k (exactly $170,932) The End of the Sun Forge

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.