Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Roguelite?

Roguelite + Martial Arts

Of 43 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Roguelite in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 63 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.3k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×2405 the market median. Revenue is up 5245% on the market; 63 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 5245% on the market, 63 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Roguelite + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $380k → $311k → $68k → $2.5k → $537 → $6.3k → $38k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Roguelite + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $598 (exactly $598)
Median $6.3k (exactly $6,287)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,830)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 83
Announced 63
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5245% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Roguelite; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelike, Action Roguelike
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 73,024 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $6.3k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 63 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Roguelite with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-TimeFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  2. + ProgrammingFair24 devs · median $9.3k · 28 announced
  3. + VampiresFair60 devs · median $4.8k · 62 announced
  4. + TypingFair29 devs · median $2.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Grand StrategyFair21 devs · median $2.0k · 23 announced
  6. + IdlerFair166 devs · median $1.5k · 235 announced
  7. + DogsFair30 devs · median $1.3k · 22 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair23 devs · median $1.1k · 23 announced
  9. + Score AttackFair344 devs · median $719 · 450 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair94 devs · median $600 · 121 announced
  11. + LogicFair144 devs · median $599 · 143 announced
  12. + DwarvesPoor odds21 devs · median $74k · 24 announced

All 229 pairs on the Roguelite page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome 2026 · $51M 嗜血印 Bloody Spell 2022 · $26M 暖雪 Warm Snow 2022 · $19M 觅长生 2023 · $12M Realm of Ink 2026 · $3.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Scroll of Taiwu : Beyond The Dome $29.99 56,535 65% 1.7M $51M (exactly $50,864,540) ConchShip Games
嗜血印 Bloody Spell older $24.99 34,184 89% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,627,745) 艺龙游戏
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
觅长生 older $14.99 27,072 93% 812k $12M (exactly $12,174,278) Chalcedony Network
Realm of Ink $24.99 5,007 90% 150k $3.8M (exactly $3,753,748) Leap Studio
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
WARRIORS: Abyss $24.99 2,015 85% 60k $1.5M (exactly $1,510,646) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Killer Bean · EA $14.99 2,272 73% 68k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,718) Killer Bean Studios LLC
The Lost Village older $11.99 2,743 70% 82k $987k (exactly $986,657) FunYoo Games
Karate Survivor $4.99 2,997 85% 90k $449k (exactly $448,651) Alawar
Forestrike $9.99 920 91% 28k $276k (exactly $275,724) Skeleton Crew Studio, Thomas Olsson
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Warlords Battleground: Extraction $11.99 525 84% 16k $189k (exactly $188,842) 绝汪
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
小小侠客模拟器 $2.99 1,103 86% 33k $99k (exactly $98,939) 小小游戏

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.