Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Lovecraftian

Of 112 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 176 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.7k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $420k, ×905 the market median. Revenue is up 260% on the market; 176 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 260% on the market, 176 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 112
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $37k → $4.9k → $4.5k → $2.0k → $7.5k → $12k (still earning) → $5.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 112
Bottom 30% $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Median $5.7k (exactly $5,672)
Top 25% $46k (exactly $46,401)
Top 5% $430k (exactly $429,811)
Developers, 2 yr 112
Released games 348
Announced 176
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 260% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Investigation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 17,066 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $5.7k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $420k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 8 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 176 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOMA older $29.99 46,772 95% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,080,768) Frictional Games
What Remains of Edith Finch older $19.99 47,036 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,207,489) Giant Sparrow
Scorn older $49.99 14,546 77% 436k $22M (exactly $21,814,636) Ebb Software
CARRION older $19.99 33,270 94% 998k $20M (exactly $19,952,019) Phobia Game Studio
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Amnesia: The Dark Descent older $19.99 20,420 95% 613k $12M (exactly $12,245,874) Frictional Games
Layers of Fear (2016) older $19.99 13,172 89% 395k $7.9M (exactly $7,899,248) Bloober Team SA
Strange Horticulture older $15.99 14,867 94% 446k $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) Bad Viking
Amnesia: Rebirth older $29.99 7,894 77% 237k $7.1M (exactly $7,102,232) Frictional Games
Call of Cthulhu® older $19.99 10,962 79% 329k $6.6M (exactly $6,573,911) Cyanide Studio
Hell is Us $49.99 4,279 83% 128k $6.4M (exactly $6,417,216) Rogue Factor
Strange Antiquities $17.99 3,288 95% 99k $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) Bad Viking
Eclipsium $12.99 3,306 91% 99k $1.3M (exactly $1,288,348) Housefire
The House of Tesla: Definitive Edition $24.99 836 72% 25k $627k (exactly $626,749) Blue Brain Games
Whisper Mountain Outbreak · EA $7.99 2,421 84% 73k $580k (exactly $580,314) Toge Productions
Do No Harm $15.99 896 74% 27k $430k (exactly $429,811) Darts Games
Necrophosis $15.99 722 89% 22k $346k (exactly $346,343) Dragonis Ares, Adonis Brosteanu
ASYLUM $24.99 421 84% 13k $316k (exactly $315,624) Senscape
The Coma 2B: Catacomb $14.99 584 75% 18k $263k (exactly $262,625) Dvora Studio Co., Ltd.
Call of the Elder Gods $24.99 313 89% 9.4k $235k (exactly $234,656) Out of the Blue Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.