Do I ship it?

GamesLooter ShooterLooter Shooter + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Looter Shooter?

Looter Shooter + Sci-fi

Of 91 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Looter Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 179 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×2.5 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $6.4M, ×4293 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 179 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 179 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Looter Shooter + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 91
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $659 → $989 → $150 → $3.6k → $14k → $7.9k → $599 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Looter Shooter + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 91
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $88k (exactly $87,715)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183)
Developers, 2 yr 91
Released games 224
Announced 179
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Looter Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online co-op and a loot economy on top of a shooter
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Looter Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Loot
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 127,416 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $87k, 1 in 20 over $6.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 6 in 10 of the 50 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 179 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Looter Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MechsFair13 devs · median $219k · 14 announced
  2. + Vehicular CombatFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  4. + 3D PlatformerLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds54 devs · median $25k · 136 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds56 devs · median $25k · 124 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  9. + DystopianPoor odds14 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Base BuildingPoor odds36 devs · median $9.1k · 74 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds50 devs · median $9.0k · 151 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds27 devs · median $6.9k · 61 announced

All 90 pairs on the Looter Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic older $29.99 303,142 97% 9.1M $273M (exactly $272,736,857) Ghost Ship Games
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Borderlands Game of the Year Enhanced older $29.99 18,217 81% 547k $16M (exactly $16,389,835) Gearbox Software, Blind Squirrel Games
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
John Carpenter's Toxic Commando $39.99 6,274 72% 188k $7.5M (exactly $7,526,918) Saber Interactive
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Mycopunk · EA $14.99 4,081 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,835,226) Pigeons at Play
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.