Do I ship it?

GamesLooter ShooterLooter Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Looter Shooter?

Looter Shooter + Post-apocalyptic

Of 80 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Looter Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 170 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.5k, ×3.7 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $780; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5756 the market median. Revenue is up 680% on the market; 170 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 680% on the market, 170 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Looter Shooter + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.1k → $3.4k → $23k → $19k → $1.5k → $2.2k → $26k (still earning) → $9.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Looter Shooter + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $779 (exactly $779)
Median $5.5k (exactly $5,539)
Top 25% $71k (exactly $70,861)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 181
Announced 170
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 680% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Looter Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online co-op and a loot economy on top of a shooter
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Looter Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Shooter, Survival
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 104,638 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $780, median $5.5k, 1 in 4 over $70k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $780. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 170 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Looter Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MechsFair13 devs · median $219k · 14 announced
  2. + Vehicular CombatFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  4. + 3D PlatformerLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds54 devs · median $25k · 136 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds56 devs · median $25k · 124 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  9. + DystopianPoor odds14 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Base BuildingPoor odds36 devs · median $9.1k · 74 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds50 devs · median $9.0k · 151 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds27 devs · median $6.9k · 61 announced

All 90 pairs on the Looter Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
REMNANT II® older $49.99 46,219 82% 1.4M $69M (exactly $69,314,634) Gunfire Games
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Roboquest older $24.99 19,158 95% 575k $14M (exactly $14,362,753) RyseUp Studios
Deadzone: Rogue $24.99 15,041 82% 451k $11M (exactly $11,276,238) Prophecy Games
Outpost: Infinity Siege older $24.99 11,636 65% 349k $8.7M (exactly $8,723,509) Team Ranger
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
Road to Vostok · EA $19.99 8,646 84% 259k $5.2M (exactly $5,185,006) Road to Vostok Ltd.
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Survive the Nights $19.99 4,719 68% 142k $2.8M (exactly $2,829,984) a2z Interactive
The Midnight Walkers · EA $19.99 1,479 54% 44k $887k (exactly $886,956) Oneway Ticket Studio
Project L33T: Founders Edition $19.99 525 47% 16k $315k (exactly $314,842) Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.