Do I ship it?

GamesLooter ShooterLooter Shooter + Open World

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Looter Shooter Open World game?

Looter Shooter + Open World

Of 57 developers who shipped a Looter Shooter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 122 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×3.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×5756 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 122 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 122 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Looter Shooter + Open World
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 57
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $201k → $2.9k → $539 → $4.8k → $8.2k → $9.6k → $12k (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Looter Shooter + Open World: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 57
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.8k (exactly $4,795)
Top 25% $68k (exactly $68,002)
Top 5% $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487)
Developers, 2 yr 57
Released games 169
Announced 122
Effort 8 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Looter Shooter
effort 8 / 10 · low · online co-op and a loot economy on top of a shooter
Open World
effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
8 / 10 · online systems, open world
Systems
Looter Shooter, Open World; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 112,737 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.8k, 1 in 4 over $68k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 122 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Looter Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MechsFair13 devs · median $219k · 14 announced
  2. + Vehicular CombatFair11 devs · median $15k · 14 announced
  3. + IdlerFair16 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  4. + 3D PlatformerLong shot23 devs · median $449 · 16 announced
  5. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds31 devs · median $71k · 73 announced
  6. + Online Co-OpPoor odds54 devs · median $25k · 136 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds56 devs · median $25k · 124 announced
  8. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds18 devs · median $16k · 44 announced
  9. + DystopianPoor odds14 devs · median $10k · 45 announced
  10. + Base BuildingPoor odds36 devs · median $9.1k · 74 announced
  11. + Character CustomizationPoor odds50 devs · median $9.0k · 151 announced
  12. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds27 devs · median $6.9k · 61 announced

All 90 pairs on the Looter Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Borderlands 3 older $59.99 127,847 81% 3.8M $230M (exactly $230,086,246) Gearbox Software
Borderlands 2 older $19.99 210,364 89% 6.3M $126M (exactly $126,155,291) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (L… (Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Borderlands 4 $69.99 57,874 59% 1.7M $122M (exactly $121,518,038) Gearbox Software
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Breakpoint older $59.99 44,635 72% 1.3M $80M (exactly $80,329,610) Ubisoft Paris
Tom Clancy’s The Division™ older $29.99 76,985 72% 2.3M $69M (exactly $69,263,404) Massive Entertainment
Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel older $39.99 31,771 79% 953k $38M (exactly $38,115,669) 2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (… (2K Australia, Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Linux))
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 older $29.99 32,600 79% 978k $29M (exactly $29,330,220) Ubisoft
OUTRIDERS older $19.99 46,146 66% 1.4M $28M (exactly $27,673,756) People Can Fly
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Deadside $24.99 34,560 76% 1.0M $26M (exactly $25,909,632) Bad Pixel
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
PIONER · EA $29.99 3,205 62% 96k $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) GFAGAMES
Heat Death: Survival Train · EA $11.99 709 77% 21k $255k (exactly $255,027) Mass Game Devs
Nuclear Epoch $14.99 487 78% 15k $219k (exactly $219,004) Cat Play Studio
Soul's Chronicle: Immortal Slayer $14.99 441 77% 13k $198k (exactly $198,318) 正向星光工作室
Tankenstein · EA $17.99 238 89% 7.1k $128k (exactly $128,449) Landship Games LTD
Afterinfection $8.99 463 56% 14k $125k (exactly $124,871) RePatrick21
Keep Her Safe · EA $9.99 382 97% 11k $114k (exactly $114,485) Gugu Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.