Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Walking Simulator

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Walking Simulator?

Loot + Walking Simulator

Only 17 developers shipped a Loot Walking Simulator in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BULT: Hunting simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 24 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 24 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Walking Simulator
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $3.2k → $0 → $2.7k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Walking Simulator: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,197)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,696)
Top 5% $260k (exactly $260,439)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 40
Announced 24
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Walking Simulator
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Walking Simulator; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Co-op, Exploration, Online Co-Op
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cartoony, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,521 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $2.6k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 24 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
Forest Hustle $4.99 570 90% 17k $85k (exactly $85,329) Mike Forest
Transliminal: Beyond The Backrooms · EA older $12.49 153 90% 4.6k $57k (exactly $57,329) Corey Jeffries
run for money Hunter vs. Runner! Which side will you win!? $29.99 5 80% 150 $4.5k (exactly $4,498) INFINITY Co., Ltd.
Treasure Hunter: History of Monastery Gold older $4.99 26 84% 780 $3.9k (exactly $3,892) Ulab Games
Treasure Drifter: Nian older $3.99 29 72% 870 $3.5k (exactly $3,471) Liujiajun
Noclipped older $1.99 56 78% 1.7k $3.3k (exactly $3,343) MateussDev
Delivery Boy older $9.99 11 63% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Poroshin Develop
Mister 9 older $3.99 27 88% 810 $3.2k (exactly $3,232) riinwin
Chopping Together🌲 $6.99 13 69% 390 $2.7k (exactly $2,726) Limey Studio
Island For Sale $5.99 15 93% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Tyranno Rocket
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
Buscabit: A treasure hunter adventure $5.99 9 88% 270 $1.6k (exactly $1,617) Vaquita Games
Way To Hell $3.99 12 83% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Side Hustle $3.99 10 70% 300 $1.2k (exactly $1,197) theJameskrik
Vivisection $2.99 5 80% 150 $449 (exactly $449) LampDog Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.