Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Turn-Based

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Turn-Based game?

Loot + Turn-Based

Only 19 developers shipped a Loot Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Battles, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $41k, ×66 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.5M, ×13558 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 65.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 23 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Turn-Based
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.4k → $41k → $66k → $20k → $2.4k → $57k → $2.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Turn-Based: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Median $41k (exactly $41,359)
Top 25% $421k (exactly $421,078)
Top 5% $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 87
Announced 23
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 65% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Turn-Based; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Inventory Management, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 24,588 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.9k, median $41k, 1 in 4 over $420k, 1 in 20 over $8.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.9k. 4 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jagged Alliance 3 older $44.99 10,882 89% 326k $15M (exactly $14,687,435) Haemimont Games
Monster Hunter Stories 2: Wings of Ruin older $39.99 11,845 82% 355k $14M (exactly $14,210,446) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Backpack Battles $14.99 18,933 91% 568k $8.5M (exactly $8,514,170) PlayWithFurcifer
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Battle Chasers: Nightwar older $29.99 5,573 87% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,014,028) Airship Syndicate
Home Behind 2 older $19.99 6,585 86% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,949,024) TPP Studio
Dragon Cliff older $9.99 7,679 88% 230k $2.3M (exactly $2,301,396) Meta Interaction
Tales of Maj'Eyal older $6.99 6,320 94% 190k $1.3M (exactly $1,325,304) Netcore Games
Siralim Ultimate older $19.99 2,145 92% 64k $1.3M (exactly $1,286,356) Thylacine Studios
FANTASIAN Neo Dimension $49.99 500 76% 15k $750k (exactly $749,850) Mistwalker Corporation
Lootbound $14.99 1,248 77% 37k $561k (exactly $561,226) ArtDock
Knightica $14.99 1,136 74% 34k $511k (exactly $510,859) Mad Mango Games
Overlooting $9.99 1,405 81% 42k $421k (exactly $421,078) Posing Possums
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Valefor $14.99 133 66% 4.0k $60k (exactly $59,810) Valefor Ltd
壶中日月 Timeless Teapot $4.99 384 77% 12k $57k (exactly $57,485) 壶天云镜
LOOTPLOT $6.99 221 94% 6.6k $46k (exactly $46,344) CodeTheory Ltd
Future War Tactics: SOF vs Alien Invasion – Turn-Based Strategy $9.99 138 60% 4.1k $41k (exactly $41,359) QuadCom Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.