Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Top-Down Shooter?

Loot + Top-Down Shooter

Of 71 developers who shipped a Loot Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 142 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×827 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 142 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 142 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 71
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $2.2k → $600 → $1.1k → $899 → $3.6k → $299 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 71
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,748)
Top 5% $519k (exactly $519,080)
Developers, 2 yr 71
Released games 166
Announced 142
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Bullet Hell
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 14,054 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $990, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 142 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darksiders Genesis 2019 · $9.3M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M Ship of Fools 2022 · $3.3M Killsquad 2021 · $2.6M Nine Parchments 2017 · $2.5M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
Ship of Fools older $21.99 5,040 82% 151k $3.3M (exactly $3,324,888) Fika Productions
Killsquad older $29.99 2,839 71% 85k $2.6M (exactly $2,554,248) Novarama
Nine Parchments older $19.99 4,123 77% 124k $2.5M (exactly $2,472,563) Frozenbyte
Star Valor older $24.99 3,272 88% 98k $2.5M (exactly $2,453,018) Rafael Burgos
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
G2 Fighter / 基因特工 · EA older $15.99 2,254 78% 68k $1.1M (exactly $1,081,244) 一寸光年G2工作室
Soundfall older $29.99 996 73% 30k $896k (exactly $896,101) Drastic Games
Relic Hunters Legend $19.99 1,101 65% 33k $660k (exactly $660,270) Rogue Snail
Grind Survivors $12.99 1,332 69% 40k $519k (exactly $519,080) Pushka Studios
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Dark Light: Survivor · EA $16.99 346 75% 10k $176k (exactly $176,356) Mirari&Co.
Bioweaver $6.99 668 77% 20k $140k (exactly $140,080) Emprom Game, Wild Kid Games
Star Vortex · EA $24.99 154 84% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Zorg Games
Demon Hunt · EA $6.99 460 77% 14k $96k (exactly $96,462) Massive Hug
Soulforge Lost Path $8.99 302 69% 9.1k $81k (exactly $81,449) Ziyue

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.