Do I ship it?

GamesLootLoot + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Simulation game?

Loot + Simulation

Of 173 developers who shipped a Loot Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 291 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $380k, ×608 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 291 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 291 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 173
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $3.9k → $147k → $1.8k → $1.4k → $4.9k → $2.8k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 173
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,703)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,786)
Top 5% $382k (exactly $381,838)
Developers, 2 yr 173
Released games 359
Announced 291
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Idler, Economy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 77,852 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $380k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 291 games are announced against 123 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
ZERO Sievert $19.99 14,378 84% 431k $8.6M (exactly $8,622,487) CABO Studio
DYSMANTLE older $19.99 11,022 91% 331k $6.6M (exactly $6,609,893) 10tons Ltd
War for the Overworld older $29.99 6,495 85% 195k $5.8M (exactly $5,843,552) Brightrock Games
河洛群俠傳 (Ho Tu Lo Shu : The Books of Dragon) older $17.99 9,616 81% 288k $5.2M (exactly $5,189,755) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
龙胤立志传 $19.99 7,153 77% 215k $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) TPP Studio
Home Behind 2 older $19.99 6,585 86% 198k $3.9M (exactly $3,949,024) TPP Studio
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
A Game About Digging A Hole™ $4.99 18,785 89% 564k $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) DoubleBee
Pixel Piracy older $14.99 5,713 65% 171k $2.6M (exactly $2,569,136) Vitali Kirpu
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
DUCKSIDE · EA $14.99 2,692 72% 81k $1.2M (exactly $1,210,592) tinyBuild Riga
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.