Do I ship it?

Games › Loot › Loot + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Puzzle game?

Loot + Puzzle

Of 51 developers who shipped a Loot Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $91k, ×146 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 98 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 98 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Loot + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 51
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $1.5k → $599 → $629 → $148 → $2.2k → $466 (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Loot + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 51
Bottom 30% $148 (exactly $148)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 5% $92k (exactly $91,754)
Developers, 2 yr 51
Released games 174
Announced 98
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Loot, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Exploration, Strategy, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 39% positive over 25,044 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Loot with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds28 devs · median $19k · 22 announced
  2. + Local Co-OpStrong odds22 devs · median $7.3k · 21 announced
  3. + SteampunkStrong odds7 devs · median $2.2k · 10 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair36 devs · median $14k · 52 announced
  5. + Turn-Based StrategyFair86 devs · median $6.3k · 97 announced
  6. + JRPGFair34 devs · median $5.5k · 41 announced
  7. + EconomyFair74 devs · median $4.6k · 114 announced
  8. + IdlerFair181 devs · median $4.5k · 256 announced
  9. + CatsFair17 devs · median $3.4k · 24 announced
  10. + IncrementalFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  11. + Creature CollectorFair51 devs · median $2.9k · 67 announced
  12. + CollectathonFair90 devs · median $1.9k · 95 announced

All 159 pairs on the Loot page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition 2015 · $15M Darksiders Genesis 2019 · $9.3M BidKing 2026 · $2.0M Shadows: Awakening 2018 · $1.4M The Wild at Heart 2021 · $541k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Darksiders II Deathinitive Edition older $29.99 16,313 78% 489k $15M (exactly $14,676,806) Gunfire Games, Vigil Games, THQ Nordic
Darksiders Genesis older $29.99 10,379 82% 311k $9.3M (exactly $9,337,986) Airship Syndicate
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Shadows: Awakening older $29.99 1,535 75% 46k $1.4M (exactly $1,381,040) Games Farm
The Wild at Heart older $24.99 722 95% 22k $541k (exactly $541,283) Moonlight Kids
Granny: Escape Together $9.99 1,661 79% 50k $498k (exactly $497,802) CreepyToad
YEAH! YOU WANT "THOSE GAMES," RIGHT? SO HERE YOU GO! NOW, LET'S SEE YOU CLEAR THEM! older $9.99 1,268 71% 38k $380k (exactly $380,020) MONKEYCRAFT Co. Ltd.
Potato Flowers in Full Bloom older $17.99 654 95% 20k $353k (exactly $352,964) Pon Pon Games
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
Desktop Dungeons: Rewind older $19.99 501 75% 15k $300k (exactly $300,450) QCF Design
The Girl from Arkanya $19.99 153 92% 4.6k $92k (exactly $91,754) Arkanya Games
DigDigDrill $3.99 607 95% 18k $73k (exactly $72,658) Toorai
Outrider Mako $17.99 121 65% 3.6k $65k (exactly $65,304) Asamado Games
CASSETTE BOY $12.99 68 70% 2.0k $27k (exactly $26,500) Wonderland Kazakiri inc.
Tidy Backpack $3.99 112 95% 3.4k $13k (exactly $13,406) BurGum Games
Mosaica: Arboreal $4.99 44 81% 1.3k $6.6k (exactly $6,587) RymPow
Stellar Raiders $9.99 21 95% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Five Head Games
Mech Shuffle $9.99 19 94% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) PillBugGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.