Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Trading

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Trading Life Sim?

Life Sim + Trading

Of 172 developers who shipped a Trading Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 288 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×28 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2774 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 288 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 27.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 288 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Trading
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 172
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $22k → $6.1k → $7.7k → $40k → $10k → $16k (still earning) → $8.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Trading: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 172
Bottom 30% $3.2k (exactly $3,232)
Median $13k (exactly $13,167)
Top 25% $60k (exactly $60,404)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438)
Developers, 2 yr 172
Released games 316
Announced 288
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Trading; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 200,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.3k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.3k. 6 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 288 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Car For Sale Simulator $16.99 20,229 78% 607k $10M (exactly $10,310,721) Red Axe Games
The Guild 3 older $29.99 7,120 60% 214k $6.4M (exactly $6,405,864) Purple Lamp, GolemLabs
Car Dealer Simulator $19.99 9,831 88% 295k $5.9M (exactly $5,895,651) Garage Monkeys
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Old Market Simulator $9.99 4,333 87% 130k $1.3M (exactly $1,298,600) Alcedo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.