Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Shop Keeper

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shop Keeper Life Sim?

Life Sim + Shop Keeper

Of 250 developers who shipped a Shop Keeper Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 459 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.6k, ×14 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $570k, ×1204 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 459 games are announced against 219 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 459 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Shop Keeper
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 250
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.6k → $142k → $93k → $7.2k → $5.1k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Shop Keeper: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 250
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $6.6k (exactly $6,593)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $52,610)
Top 5% $572k (exactly $571,802)
Developers, 2 yr 250
Released games 307
Announced 459
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 510% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Shop Keeper; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 96,736 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $6.6k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $570k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 3 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 459 games are announced against 219 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tiny Bookshop $19.99 6,967 96% 209k $4.2M (exactly $4,178,110) neoludic games
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
BidKing $2.99 22,238 33% 667k $2.0M (exactly $1,994,749) MindSurge Network & Games
Tavern Manager Simulator 🍻 older $14.99 4,018 91% 121k $1.8M (exactly $1,806,895) One More Time
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Cat Cafe Manager older $19.99 2,174 87% 65k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,748) Roost Games
Teddy's Haven · EA $14.99 2,800 95% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,259,160) Teddy Bear Games LLC
Trash Goblin $19.99 1,574 87% 47k $944k (exactly $943,928) Spilt Milk Studios Ltd
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.