Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Science

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Science Life Sim?

Life Sim + Science

Of 28 developers who shipped a Science Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×23 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1837 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 32 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 22.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Science
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $29k → $57k → $65k → $328k → $11k (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Science: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $11k (exactly $10,782)
Top 25% $180k (exactly $179,910)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 62
Announced 32
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Science
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Sandbox
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Relaxing, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 19,844 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 3 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition $29.99 11,511 97% 345k $10M (exactly $10,356,447) eduweb
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb
The Sapling · EA older $17.99 1,922 89% 58k $1.0M (exactly $1,037,303) Wessel Stoop
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Little Rocket Lab $19.99 1,286 90% 39k $771k (exactly $771,214) Teenage Astronauts
Fish Game older $24.99 589 93% 18k $442k (exactly $441,573) A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink… (A Shell in the Pit Games, Creative Ink Games)
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
Planetary Life · EA $11.99 912 94% 27k $328k (exactly $328,046) Sotenbox
Monster Lab Simulator · EA $12.99 505 70% 15k $197k (exactly $196,798) Round 3 Studios
Bugaboo Pocket $19.99 300 86% 9.0k $180k (exactly $179,910) Elytra Games
Nature & Life - Drunk On Nectar $14.99 263 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $118,271) Venugopalan Sreedharan
Emergency Room Simulator $24.99 154 43% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Caipirinha Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.