Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Sci-fi

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Sci-fi Life Sim?

Life Sim + Sci-fi

Of 76 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 120 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.8k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.7M, ×3778 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 120 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 120 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Sci-fi
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $50k → $17k → $2.4k → $7.8k → $17k → $7.3k → $14k (still earning) → $534 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Sci-fi: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $1.6k (exactly $1,556)
Median $5.8k (exactly $5,753)
Top 25% $84k (exactly $83,916)
Top 5% $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 167
Announced 120
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.90

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Sci-fi
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, RPG
Price point
$8.90 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.90.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 34,926 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.6k, median $5.8k, 1 in 4 over $83k, 1 in 20 over $1.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.6k. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 120 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
Two Point Museum $29.99 9,626 95% 289k $8.7M (exactly $8,660,512) Two Point Studios
The Sims™ 2 Legacy Collection $29.99 4,759 72% 143k $4.3M (exactly $4,281,672) MAXIS
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Roadside Research · EA $14.99 3,991 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,794,753) Cybernetic Walrus
ANEURISM IV $9.99 5,686 75% 171k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,094) Vellocet
Chef RPG · EA older $19.99 2,593 87% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,022) World 2 Studio
Love is All Around 2 $9.99 3,749 83% 112k $1.1M (exactly $1,123,575) intiny
60 Parsecs! older $9.99 3,310 90% 99k $992k (exactly $992,007) Robot Gentleman
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
Subside $24.99 513 96% 15k $385k (exactly $384,596) A2D Software
Ecosystem $19.99 601 76% 18k $360k (exactly $360,420) Tom Johnson
One Lonely Outpost $19.99 540 58% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) indie.io

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.