Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Runner

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Runner Life Sim?

Life Sim + Runner

Of 25 developers who shipped a Runner Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360 in the last 2 years and $240 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 13 developers shipped in the last year and 14 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 6170% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Runner
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $0 → $180 → $30 → $838 → $1.0k (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Runner: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $3.0k (exactly $2,997)
Top 5% $56k (exactly $55,707)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 45
Announced 14
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 6170% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Runner
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Runner; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Action-Adventure
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 635 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.9k, 1 in 20 over $55k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
WakuWaku Park $24.99 100 72% 3.0k $75k (exactly $74,970) DOUJIN3ARIES
Eggo $5.99 310 83% 9.3k $56k (exactly $55,707) 天赋一饼 Meme Crepe
Packing House · EA older $9.99 73 68% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,878) SmartLife, Roman Studio
SuperSorry $5.99 115 74% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,666) Sun Studio
Hobby Horse $14.99 29 89% 870 $13k (exactly $13,041) Games Incubator
Kitchen Simulator 2 older $4.99 80 48% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,976) WhackAKey Games
Prison Escape Simulator $9.99 18 77% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) PEGAX Studios
CosmoOdyssey 2: Comeback to origin older $1.99 59 94% 1.8k $3.5k (exactly $3,522) Brenntkopf Development
Easy Running $8.99 12 83% 360 $3.2k (exactly $3,236) LUO WENJUN
Slim Girl $9.99 10 40% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Fat Tiger
Condemned to Clean $5.99 13 76% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) KOMA
Trump Tariff $1.99 21 71% 630 $1.3k (exactly $1,254) Valkeala Software, Tero Lunkka
Sweep Bump $4.99 7 100% 210 $1.0k (exactly $1,048) Sleepy Cat Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.