Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Life Sim?

Life Sim + Roguelite

Of 59 developers who shipped a Roguelite Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×9.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×762 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 99 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 99 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 59
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $29k → $40k → $4.6k → $62k → $3.3k → $8.1k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 59
Bottom 30% $480 (exactly $480)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,613)
Top 25% $62k (exactly $62,338)
Top 5% $362k (exactly $362,008)
Developers, 2 yr 59
Released games 102
Announced 99
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Roguelite; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Choices Matter
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 13,949 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $62k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 6 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
School Days $14.99 6,023 77% 181k $2.7M (exactly $2,708,543) 白雨工作室
Chinese Online Game older $9.99 6,610 82% 198k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,017) 648工作室
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
沉默的蟋蟀 older $14.99 1,130 88% 34k $508k (exactly $508,161) 蓬莱飞鱼工作室
Zombie Graveyard Simulator $14.99 805 89% 24k $362k (exactly $362,008) threeW
Lynked: Banner of the Spark $14.99 375 77% 11k $169k (exactly $168,638) FuzzyBot
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
轮回修仙传 $4.99 1,085 81% 33k $162k (exactly $162,424) Collider Studio
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Becoming a King $14.99 281 77% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Lustration Team, TopHouse Studio
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.