Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelike Life Sim?

Life Sim + Roguelike

Of 43 developers who shipped a Roguelike Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×7.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×2150 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 68 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 68 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $18k → $20k → $8.8k → $599 → $23k (still earning) → $628 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $356 (exactly $356)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $43k (exactly $42,898)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 83
Announced 68
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Roguelike; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Roguelite
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Hand-drawn, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 17,949 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $42k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
Chinese Online Game older $9.99 6,610 82% 198k $2.0M (exactly $1,981,017) 648工作室
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
CHANGE: A Homeless Survival Experience older $19.99 2,596 91% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,821) Delve Interactive
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
Card Survival: Fantasy Forest · EA $21.99 1,135 76% 34k $749k (exactly $748,760) WinterSpring Games
Lost But Found $6.99 2,316 71% 69k $486k (exactly $485,665) Rogue Duck Interactive
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Becoming a King $14.99 281 77% 8.4k $126k (exactly $126,366) Lustration Team, TopHouse Studio
Dungeon Dreams 2 older $19.99 209 90% 6.3k $125k (exactly $125,337) DDreams Games
ROGUE LIGHT DECK BUILDER $3.99 888 94% 27k $106k (exactly $106,294) Gil Lawson
我的人生 $6.99 496 65% 15k $104k (exactly $104,011) ZZ Games
Song's Fantasy $7.99 229 55% 6.9k $55k (exactly $54,891) 南十字座工作室

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.