Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Post-apocalyptic Life Sim?

Life Sim + Post-apocalyptic

Of 38 developers who shipped a Post-apocalyptic Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 82 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $6.9M, ×11080 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 82 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 19.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 82 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Post-apocalyptic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $1.8k → $2.7k → $102k → $38k → $12k → $17k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Post-apocalyptic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $629 (exactly $629)
Median $12k (exactly $11,988)
Top 25% $118k (exactly $118,141)
Top 5% $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 76
Announced 82
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Post-apocalyptic
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 28,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $630, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $110k, 1 in 20 over $6.9M.

3 in 10 developers made under $630. 5 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 82 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Portia older $29.99 34,844 91% 1.0M $31M (exactly $31,349,147) Pathea Games
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
The Wandering Village $29.99 7,734 91% 232k $7.0M (exactly $6,958,280) Stray Fawn Studio
60 Seconds! Reatomized older $9.99 18,362 94% 551k $5.5M (exactly $5,503,091) Robot Gentleman
Rusty's Retirement older $6.99 13,902 96% 417k $2.9M (exactly $2,915,249) Mister Morris Games
I Am Future: Cozy Apocalypse Survival $19.99 4,011 83% 120k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,397) Mandragora
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Survival Log $10.99 2,709 82% 81k $893k (exactly $893,157) Midnight Workshop
Rise of Gun older $12.99 1,094 84% 33k $426k (exactly $426,332) PimpGameStudio
Cook Serve Forever $29.99 333 69% 10k $300k (exactly $299,600) Vertigo Gaming Inc.
Nested Lands · EA $14.99 482 73% 14k $217k (exactly $216,755) 1M Bits Horde
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Apocalypse with Femboy $12.99 439 89% 13k $171k (exactly $171,078) Pout Honey
Wasteland Bites $9.99 440 93% 13k $132k (exactly $131,868) CosmicDev
City 20 · EA $19.99 197 72% 5.9k $118k (exactly $118,141) Untold Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.