Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Perma Death

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Perma Death Life Sim?

Life Sim + Perma Death

Of 25 developers who shipped a Perma Death Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210 in the last 2 years and $360 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 4 / 10 build. 17 developers shipped in the last year and 35 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Perma Death
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $359 → $598 → $150 → $299 (still earning) → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Perma Death: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $210 (exactly $210)
Top 25% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 5% $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 54
Announced 35
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Perma Death
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim, Perma Death; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Survival
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, 1990's
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 20,362 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $210, 1 in 4 over $1.7k, 1 in 20 over $1.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Winter Car · EA $14.99 18,614 94% 558k $8.4M (exactly $8,370,716) Amistech Games
One Hour One Life older $14.99 3,988 79% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,793,404) Jason Rohrer
G.O.P.O.T.A older $29.99 1,493 81% 45k $1.3M (exactly $1,343,252) VD Games, PropilGames
Shelter older $14.99 2,683 85% 80k $1.2M (exactly $1,206,545) Might and Delight
Bootstrap Island $24.99 1,362 81% 41k $1.0M (exactly $1,021,091) Maru VR
A Merchant's Promise · EA $14.99 300 86% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) Game Draft Studio
Lost Scavenger · EA older $14.99 220 51% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Rockbee
Domestic Dog older $4.99 319 83% 9.6k $48k (exactly $47,754) SD
Trailer Shop Simulator older $4.99 265 73% 8.0k $40k (exactly $39,670) GidAzGames
Routine Feat older $9.99 115 87% 3.5k $34k (exactly $34,466) sad3d
An Other Golf Game · EA $6.99 46 86% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) waxycaps
TradingLife · EA $11.99 10 100% 300 $3.6k (exactly $3,597) Fun(ctor) Studio
Back to Dust - Hold it Together $6.99 17 100% 510 $3.6k (exactly $3,565) KomBits Game Studio
GG Life · EA $14.99 4 50% 120 $1.8k (exactly $1,799) AfterGlow Games
Chinese style school $3.99 5 20% 150 $598 (exactly $598) 柯志豪
Anomaly Observer · EA $7.99 2 50% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Letalis Entertainment
100 for Justice $5.99 2 50% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Cartoon Rocket Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.