Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Life Sim?

Life Sim + Mystery

Of 84 developers who shipped a Mystery Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 173 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×5.7 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×695 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 173 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 173 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.0k → $1.1k → $5.9k → $2.4k → $2.0k → $2.3k → $13k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.7k (exactly $2,695)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,401)
Top 5% $330k (exactly $330,113)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 168
Announced 173
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Story Rich, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,821 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.7k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 173 games are announced against 43 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Whisper of the House $14.99 5,344 96% 160k $2.4M (exactly $2,403,197) 元气弹工作室(GD Studio)
Obenseuer · EA older $19.99 1,684 94% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,009,895) Loiste Interactive
Friendship with Benefits older $10.99 1,475 96% 44k $486k (exactly $486,308) TwistedScarlett60
HELLMART $14.99 1,034 77% 31k $465k (exactly $464,990) GAZE IN GAMES
Sunken Engine $14.99 814 80% 24k $366k (exactly $366,056) Two Nomads Studio
Blood Money: Lethal Eden $8.99 1,262 91% 38k $340k (exactly $340,361) 碧火互娱
ORDER 13 $8.99 1,224 87% 37k $330k (exactly $330,113) Cybernetic Walrus
The Test: Final Revelation older $1.99 5,286 97% 159k $316k (exactly $315,574) Randumb Studios
Photomaly $6.99 1,292 89% 39k $271k (exactly $270,932) Revira Interactive
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED
SchoolBoy Runaway $1.99 3,731 90% 112k $223k (exactly $222,741) Linked Squad
Everholm $19.99 297 75% 8.9k $178k (exactly $178,111) Chonky Loaf
On Your Tail $19.99 292 87% 8.8k $175k (exactly $175,112) Memorable Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.