Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Life Sim?

Life Sim + Magic

Of 46 developers who shipped a Magic Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 138 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.9k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.4M, ×7229 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 138 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 20.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 138 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.5k → $3.2k → $3.4k → $45k → $16k → $28k → $3.6k (still earning) → $5.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $9.9k (exactly $9,891)
Top 25% $94k (exactly $93,538)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 117
Announced 138
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, RPG, Character Customization
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Cute, Relaxing, Cozy
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 33,901 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $9.9k, 1 in 4 over $93k, 1 in 20 over $3.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 138 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Disney Dreamlight Valley older $39.99 22,027 92% 661k $26M (exactly $26,425,792) Gameloft
Sun Haven older $24.99 22,069 79% 662k $17M (exactly $16,545,129) Pixel Sprout Studios
Little Witch in the Woods $19.99 11,691 89% 351k $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) SUNNY SIDE UP
Rune Factory: Guardians of Azuma $59.99 2,947 88% 88k $5.3M (exactly $5,303,716) Marvelous Inc.
Magical Princess $14.99 7,636 96% 229k $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc.
Cat Mail Co. $14.99 6,289 92% 189k $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) Maracas Studio
Moonlight Peaks $34.99 1,793 88% 54k $1.9M (exactly $1,882,112) Little Chicken
Wylde Flowers older $24.99 2,329 95% 70k $1.7M (exactly $1,746,051) Studio Drydock Pty Ltd
Calico older $11.99 3,238 88% 97k $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) Peachy Keen Games
Ithya: Magic Studies $10.99 2,103 97% 63k $693k (exactly $693,359) BlueTurtle
The Lust City 2 $15.99 315 79% 9.5k $151k (exactly $151,106) Candylight Studio
Ritual of Raven $14.99 325 88% 9.8k $146k (exactly $146,152) Spellgarden Games
Seeds of Calamity $14.99 271 78% 8.1k $122k (exactly $121,869) Laborious Lark Studios
Loafing Town $6.99 531 85% 16k $111k (exactly $111,351) GoblinZz

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.