Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Idler

Of 129 developers who shipped an Idler Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 143 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 84 developers shipped in the last year and 143 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 143 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 129
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $980 → $599 → $327 → $1.6k → $327 → $538 → $535 (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 129
Bottom 30% $201 (exactly $201)
Median $450 (exactly $450)
Top 25% $2.7k (exactly $2,700)
Top 5% $217k (exactly $217,453)
Developers, 2 yr 129
Released games 445
Announced 143
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $2.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Puzzle, Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Resource Management
Price point
$2.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $2.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 21,919 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $450, 1 in 4 over $2.7k, 1 in 20 over $210k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 143 games are announced against 84 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
THE LONGING older $14.99 6,977 92% 209k $3.1M (exactly $3,137,557) Studio Seufz
The Farmer Was Replaced $9.99 9,116 95% 273k $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) Timon Herzog
Fly Corp older $14.99 3,112 85% 93k $1.4M (exactly $1,399,466) KishMish Games
Stone Story RPG older $29.99 893 90% 27k $803k (exactly $803,432) Rex Games, standardcombo
Orb of Creation $11.99 2,167 84% 65k $779k (exactly $779,470) MarpleGames
Horripilant $7.99 2,928 92% 88k $702k (exactly $701,842) Alexandre Declos , Pas Game Studio
Furnish Master · EA older $14.99 1,108 81% 33k $498k (exactly $498,268) Alex Blintsov
Aquarist older $15.99 950 81% 29k $456k (exactly $455,715) FreeMind S.A.
Mountain older $0.99 12,921 88% 388k $384k (exactly $383,754) David OReilly
Outhold $6.99 1,818 86% 55k $381k (exactly $381,235) Tellus Games
Haydee 3 $29.99 321 84% 9.6k $289k (exactly $288,804) Haydee Interactive
SchoolBoy Runaway $1.99 3,731 90% 112k $223k (exactly $222,741) Linked Squad
Asbury Pines · EA $12.99 558 90% 17k $217k (exactly $217,453) Chaystar Unlimited LLC
Craftlings $19.99 311 86% 9.3k $187k (exactly $186,507) ARIANO Games GmbH
I'm on Observation Duty 7 $11.99 426 93% 13k $153k (exactly $153,232) Notovia, Dreamloop Games
Suncraft $6.99 543 92% 16k $114k (exactly $113,867) Spicy Tuna Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.