Do I ship it?

GamesPuzzlePuzzle + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Puzzle game?

Puzzle + Horror

Of 1,566 developers who shipped a Horror Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,261 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $170k, ×373 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 2,261 games are announced against 873 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 2,261 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Puzzle + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,566
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $3.1k → $2.2k → $1.6k → $1.3k → $1.6k → $1.2k (still earning) → $599 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Puzzle + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,566
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,258)
Top 25% $8.0k (exactly $7,974)
Top 5% $177k (exactly $177,332)
Developers, 2 yr 1,566
Released games 4,602
Announced 2,261
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Action
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 250,951 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $170k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 892 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,261 games are announced against 873 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair57 devs · median $8.2k · 53 announced
  2. + Medical SimFair17 devs · median $6.1k · 27 announced
  3. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair40 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  4. + Escape RoomFair161 devs · median $1.8k · 150 announced
  5. + VampiresFair46 devs · median $1.7k · 37 announced
  6. + CatsFair281 devs · median $1.2k · 334 announced
  7. + DemonsFair233 devs · median $1.2k · 248 announced
  8. + God GameFair27 devs · median $1.2k · 30 announced
  9. + RomanceFair209 devs · median $1.0k · 251 announced
  10. + AutomationFair135 devs · median $1.0k · 164 announced
  11. + Tower DefenseFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  12. + LemmingsFair13 devs · median $959 · 11 announced

All 246 pairs on the Puzzle page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
A Plague Tale: Innocence older $39.99 63,166 93% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,780,250) Asobo Studio
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
Outer Wilds older $24.99 89,506 95% 2.7M $67M (exactly $67,102,648) Mobius Digital
Batman™: Arkham Knight older $19.99 111,190 92% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,680,643) Rocksteady Studios
Half-Life 2 older $9.99 202,782 97% 6.1M $61M (exactly $60,773,765) Valve
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
REANIMAL $39.99 13,809 78% 414k $17M (exactly $16,566,657) Tarsier Studios
Little Nightmares III $39.99 10,165 46% 305k $12M (exactly $12,194,950) Supermassive Games
Liar's Bar · EA $6.99 48,708 89% 1.5M $10M (exactly $10,214,068) Curve Animation
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Ghost Watchers $14.99 12,729 86% 382k $5.7M (exactly $5,724,231) Renderise
ROUTINE $24.99 7,322 91% 220k $5.5M (exactly $5,489,303) Lunar Software
Endacopia $16.50 6,474 99% 194k $3.2M (exactly $3,204,630) Andyland
Nubby's Number Factory $4.99 18,138 97% 544k $2.7M (exactly $2,715,259) MogDogBlog Productions
The Incident at Galley House $19.99 4,087 94% 123k $2.5M (exactly $2,450,974) William Rous, Evil Trout Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.