Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Tower Defense?

Tower Defense + Historical

Of 29 developers who shipped a Historical Tower Defense in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $6.3M, ×10148 the market median. Revenue is up 595% on the market; 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 595% on the market, 52 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tower Defense + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 29
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $7.0k → $2.1k → $3.4k → $1.3k → $1.0k → $2.1k (still earning) → $6.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tower Defense + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 29
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,498)
Top 5% $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012)
Developers, 2 yr 29
Released games 90
Announced 52
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 595% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, RTS
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 23,825 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $6.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tower Defense with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DwarvesStrong odds10 devs · median $6.7k · 9 announced
  2. + MiningFair33 devs · median $6.3k · 45 announced
  3. + Survival HorrorFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 16 announced
  4. + CapitalismFair15 devs · median $1.6k · 20 announced
  5. + TanksFair14 devs · median $1.5k · 13 announced
  6. + MechsFair24 devs · median $1.5k · 24 announced
  7. + IdlerFair108 devs · median $1.2k · 136 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair64 devs · median $1.0k · 67 announced
  9. + Gun CustomizationFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  10. + LogicFair40 devs · median $955 · 44 announced
  11. + On-Rails ShooterFair11 devs · median $899 · 12 announced
  12. + Psychological HorrorFair8 devs · median $897 · 8 announced

All 150 pairs on the Tower Defense page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Diplomacy is Not an Option 2024 · $9.8M Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition 2025 · $6.4M Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) 2013 · $5.3M Stronghold: Definitive Edition 2023 · $4.4M Stronghold HD (2012) 2013 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Diplomacy is Not an Option $29.99 10,904 85% 327k $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) Door 407
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Stronghold Crusader HD (2012) older $9.99 17,564 97% 527k $5.3M (exactly $5,263,931) Firefly Studios
Stronghold: Definitive Edition older $14.99 9,787 86% 294k $4.4M (exactly $4,401,214) Firefly Studios
Stronghold HD (2012) older $5.99 8,651 95% 260k $1.6M (exactly $1,554,585) Firefly Studios
Rock of Ages 2: Bigger & Boulder™ older $14.99 2,792 90% 84k $1.3M (exactly $1,255,562) ACE Team
Rock of Ages older $9.99 3,364 92% 101k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,191) ACE Team
Toy Soldiers older $9.99 1,362 88% 41k $408k (exactly $408,191) Signal Studios
Stickman Trenches older $5.99 1,922 81% 58k $345k (exactly $345,383) Big Play Games
Warfare Legacy Collection $9.99 1,115 92% 33k $334k (exactly $334,166) Con Artist Games
Grit and Valor - 1949 $19.99 274 75% 8.2k $164k (exactly $164,318) Milky Tea Studios
Crownhold $6.99 471 84% 14k $99k (exactly $98,769) Tobias Mikula
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
Red Rocket Defencism $7.99 172 98% 5.2k $41k (exactly $41,228) tiny cactus studio
Beach Invasion 1915-Gallipoli $7.99 73 71% 2.2k $17k (exactly $17,498) AIx2 Games
CastleOn $9.20 24 91% 720 $6.6k (exactly $6,624) Lord Castleon
Malón $4.99 41 80% 1.2k $6.1k (exactly $6,138) LTP Argentina

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.