Games › Puzzle › Puzzle + Historical
Should I ship a Historical Puzzle game?
Puzzle + Historical
Of 171 developers who shipped a Historical Puzzle game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 240 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×638 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 240 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $9.7k (exactly $9,696) |
| Top 5% | $401k (exactly $400,600) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 171 |
| Released games | 628 |
| Announced | 240 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
- Historical
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Investigation
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 39,712 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 100 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 240 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Puzzle with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Medical SimFair
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Escape RoomFair
- + VampiresFair
- + CatsFair
- + DemonsFair
- + God GameFair
- + RomanceFair
- + AutomationFair
- + Tower DefenseFair
- + LemmingsFair
Comparable games
A Plague Tale: Innocence 2019 · $76M 
Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun 2016 · $37M 
Indiana Jones and the Great Circle 2024 · $27M 
Return of the Obra Dinn 2018 · $19M 
Assassin’s Creed® Rogue 2015 · $13M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | A Plague Tale: Innocence | older | $39.99 | 63,166 93% | 1.9M | $76M (exactly $75,780,250) | Asobo Studio |
| | Shadow Tactics: Blades of the Shogun | older | $39.99 | 30,845 96% | 925k | $37M (exactly $37,004,746) | Mimimi Games |
| | Indiana Jones and the Great Circle | $69.99 | 13,058 89% | 392k | $27M (exactly $27,417,883) | MachineGames | |
| | Return of the Obra Dinn | older | $19.99 | 32,309 96% | 969k | $19M (exactly $19,375,707) | Lucas Pope |
| | Assassin’s Creed® Rogue | older | $19.99 | 21,310 86% | 639k | $13M (exactly $12,779,607) | Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Kiev |
 | Valiant Hearts: The Great War™ / Soldats Inconnus : Mémoires de la Grande Guerre™ | older | $14.99 | 24,468 95% | 734k | $11M (exactly $11,003,260) | Ubisoft Montpellier |
 | Fate Seeker II | older | $22.60 | 11,360 88% | 341k | $7.7M (exactly $7,702,080) | JSL Entertainment |
 | Murders on the Yangtze River | older | $14.99 | 15,833 96% | 475k | $7.1M (exactly $7,120,100) | OMEGAMES STUDIO |
 | Sherlock Holmes: Crimes and Punishments | older | $29.99 | 7,130 89% | 214k | $6.4M (exactly $6,414,861) | Frogwares |
 | The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles | older | $39.99 | 5,113 93% | 153k | $6.1M (exactly $6,134,066) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | Resonance: A Plague Tale Legacy | $49.99 | 3,558 92% | 107k | $5.3M (exactly $5,335,933) | Asobo Studio | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | The Rise of the Golden Idol | $19.99 | 3,786 92% | 114k | $2.3M (exactly $2,270,464) | Color Gray Games | |
 | The Séance of Blake Manor | $19.99 | 3,683 95% | 110k | $2.2M (exactly $2,208,695) | Spooky Doorway | |
 | Once Upon A KATAMARI | $39.99 | 1,355 90% | 41k | $1.6M (exactly $1,625,594) | RENGAME | |
 | Drop Duchy | $14.99 | 2,962 89% | 89k | $1.3M (exactly $1,332,011) | Sleepy Mill Studio | |
 | Proverbs | $8.99 | 1,786 96% | 54k | $482k (exactly $481,684) | Mark Ffrench | |
 | The Darkest Files | $19.99 | 668 95% | 20k | $401k (exactly $400,600) | Paintbucket Games | |
 | Gecko Gods | $19.99 | 629 96% | 19k | $377k (exactly $377,211) | Inresin |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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